The post 6 Top Political Consulting Companies in India appeared first on Leadtech Consulting Pvt Ltd.

PC Alexander, the former Maharashtra governor, wrote in his book “Perils of Democracy” that political partnerships are frequently short-lived due to increasing conflicts among coalition partners. This observation is especially applicable in Maharashtra today, as both the government and the opposition are struggling with seat-sharing concerns ahead of the upcoming assembly elections.

Following the Lok Sabha elections, tensions have risen among the Mahayuti alliance. Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, which contested on 16 seats and won seven, was only allocated a Minister of State (MoS) position in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet, which sparked public outrage among its members.

Similarly, Ajit Pawar’s NCP declined the role of Minister of State, seeking a full cabinet post. Senior NCP leader Chhagan Bhujbal’s recommendation that the party aim to contest 80-90 seats in order to win at least 50 MLAs adds to the internal problems.

The BJP contested 164 of the 288 seats in the 2019 Maharashtra elections, while the Shiv Sena contested 126. Seat-sharing negotiations have grown more complicated now that Ajit Pawar’s NCP is also a part of the Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra.

Previously, the unified NCP fought 121 seats, and both the Shiv Sena and the NCP are demanding a significant number of seats, refusing to compromise. There is even a possibility that the NCP will abandon the Mahayuti.

The RSS has slammed the BJP for allowing Ajit Pawar in the alliance, claiming it has harmed the party’s prestige.

Raj Thackeray has announced that his party, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), will compete independently in the Vidhan Sabha elections. However, it is still possible for the MNS to join the NDA before the elections. Despite the fact that the MNS did not participate in the Lok Sabha elections, Thackeray’s support for the BJP was interpreted as a reciprocal arrangement.

The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is also experiencing internal conflict.

The Congress has taken a more assertive stance since becoming the largest party in Maharashtra following the Lok Sabha elections. The Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (Sharad Pawar) are furious by Maharashtra Congress head Nana Patole’s recent assertion that his party is the “Big Brother” in the MVA.

The Congress contested 147 seats in 2019. The present seat-sharing procedure inside the MVA is challenging, with tense relations between the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Congress.

During the Lok Sabha elections, the Shiv Sena (UBT) announced its candidate for the Sangli seat separately, resulting in a split in which the Congress candidate contested independently and won. Similar disagreements arose during the MLC elections, with Nana Patole alleging that Uddhav Thackeray ignored his calls.

In a recent meeting with party members, Uddhav Thackeray urged them to prepare to compete for all 288 seats alone, indicating further split within the MVA.

Significant realignments are anticipated within both alliances in the near future. The BJP’s central leadership is likely to intervene in the Mahayuti disputes, while Sharad Pawar will play an important role in keeping the MVA united.

The post Seat Wars: Maharashtra’s Political Alliances in Turmoil Ahead of Elections appeared first on Leadtech Consulting Pvt Ltd.

The post 2024 Lok Sabha Elections: A Triumph of Democracy appeared first on Leadtech Consulting Pvt Ltd.

The post The Kushti of Politics: Haryana Assembly Election 2024 appeared first on Leadtech Consulting Pvt Ltd.

The post The Key Role of India’s Top Political Management Consulting Firm in Election Campaigns appeared first on Leadtech Consulting Pvt Ltd.

A person may run for office in a general election, more than one by-election, or biennial elections from a maximum of two seats under Section 33 of the RPA, 1951.

Candidates were allowed to run in as many constituencies as possible prior to this law. According to Section 70 of the Act, if a candidate wins both seats, they are required to leave one within ten days, calling for a by-election. 

As per the Constitution, a person is not allowed to hold more than one seat in a House or serve as a member of both the House of Commons and a state legislature at the same time. 

Procedures and timelines for effect:

I. Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha 

Article 101(1) of the Constitution, read with Section 68(1) of The Representation of the People Act, 1951 says:

If a person is elected simultaneously to both the Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha, and if he has not yet taken his seat in either House, he can choose, within 10 days from the later of the dates on which he is chosen, which Houses of which he would like to be a member.

The member must intimate his choice in writing to the Secretary to the ECI within the 10-day window, failing which his seat in Rajya Sabha will fall vacant at the end of this period [Sec 68(2), RPA 1951].

The choice, once intimated, is final. [Sec. 68(3), RPA, 1951]

No such option is, however, available to a person who is already a member of one House and has contested the election for membership of the other House.

So, if a sitting Rajya Sabha member contests and wins a Lok Sabha election, his seat in the Upper House becomes automatically vacant on the date he is declared elected to Lok Sabha. The same applies to a Lok Sabha member who contests an election to Rajya Sabha. [Sec 69 read with Sec 67A, RPA 1951]

II. Elected on two Lok Sabha seats

There is no one in this category in the new Lok Sabha. Under Sec. 33(7) of RPA, 1951, an individual can contest from two parliamentary constituencies.

But, if elected from both, he has to resign one seat within 14 days of the declaration of the result, failing which both his seats shall fall vacant. [Sec. 70, RPA, 1951, read with Rule 91 of the Conduct of Elections Rules, 1961]

III. State Assembly and Lok Sabha

Article 101(2) of the Constitution, along with Rule 2 of the Prohibition of Simultaneous Membership Rules, 1950, made by the President under this Article, says:

After being elected to the Lok Sabha, state legislators are required to step down from their positions within 14 days, “from the date of publication in the Gazette of India or in the Official Gazette of the State, whichever is later.” If this doesn’t happen, their Lok Sabha seats will immediately become vacant.

The post Can an Individual in India Hold Seats in Parliament and the Legislative Assembly? appeared first on Leadtech Consulting Pvt Ltd.

December of 2022 was a tough one for the national ruling party BJP. The right-wing Hindu party has been in power at the Centre since 2014, and since then has mostly seen unbounded success. From domestic success like organically flipping traditional Congress states, to international success like improved national image, BJP managed to make its mark.

Politically speaking, BJP has impressed even naysayers by winning where their win was unimaginable. For instance, the way they emerged as the single largest opposition in the state of West Bengal (a traditionally communist-electing state) in the 2021 Assembly elections, came as a shock to political analysts and the public at large. However, not every election season is favorable for them, as was exhibited in the recent string of elections.

Between 7 and 8 December, results for 3 types of elections were announced – Assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, Corporation elections in Delhi, and a few by-elections in Uttar Pradesh and other states, both for Lok Sabha and their Assembly. BJP’s scorecard this election season was a little worrying.

Gujarat is a BJP bastion – the state groomed the present Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and has won in the state consecutively since 1998. In the last election held in 2017, they saw a dip in seat share, although they managed to woo some Opposition MLAs back and maintained their dominance. Earlier this year, they decimated their main opposition Congress by poaching one of their main leaders, Hardik Patel. It was no surprise that they won 156 of the 182 seats in the 2022 Gujarat Assembly Elections. Leadtech, a pioneer in Election Management, collected primary data from the ground and was able to predict this win earlier this year.

But in all the others, BJP lost out a lot.

Their loss in the MCD (Municipal Corporation of Delhi) elections, which were postponed several times, ended their 15-year streak. Between 2007 and 2022, they had managed to win the corporation, regardless of whether Congress or AAP had formed the government at the State level, but this time, in a neck-to-neck competition with AAP, they faced a bitter defeat. It wasn’t a lack of effort – BJP’s campaign for MCD was aggressive and unmatched. State President Adesh Gupta managed to get BJP a 39% vote share – a 3% increase from last term, but it still fell short of AAP. They won only 104 seats, to AAP’s 134. This is another result Leadtech had predicted earlier this year.

Himachal Pradesh, which, like Rajasthan, gave the mandate alternatively to Congress’s Virbhadra Singh and BJP’s Prem Kumar Dhumal for several decades, chose a BJP government in 2017. The CM face changed, however, since Dhumal did not win, and they managed a decent run of 5 years. But the government was toppled this year when Congress, despite the lack of stalwart Virbhadra Singh (due to his passing), won 40 of the 68 seats. AAP won no seats, however, and BJP was reduced to a minority

The by-elections were also disappointing for BJP. Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Mainpuri seat was won by his daughter-in-law, Dimple Yadav, standing as proof that Samajwadi Party is still a force to be reckoned with, at least in Uttar Pradesh. In assembly by-elections, only 2 of the 6 seats were won by BJP.

These results are worrying for BJP, which plans to expand into every state, every territory. States like Himachal Pradesh and Corporations like the MCD, in which they had a good control and history, were lost out to parties that BJP doesn’t consider to be serious opponents. Winning Gujarat alone is not enough – that is just testimony to their old roots – losing previously won territories is what is crucial. BJP needs to pull up their socks and move beyond media control -they need to work harder on ground and engage in membership drives. Other parties like INC and AAP, which are doing well, need to engage in mass door to door campaigns. Leadtech has an expertise in all such services.

The future isn’t as simple and predictable anymore – Congress is not dead yet, and BJP isn’t the only option.

GET IN TOUCH

[contact-form-7]

The post How BJP Fared this Election Season – And What It Says About the Future appeared first on Leadtech Consulting Pvt Ltd.

The whole of Mainpuri is bustling with the cries of SP’s recent campaign slogan, “UP ki Chaabi, Dimple Bhabhi.” After the unexpected passing of SP founder and patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, this by-election is a crucial one for Samajwadi Party. They won only 5 seats in the 2019 general elections due to their Mahagathbandhan Alliance, of which they had already lost 2 seats (Azamgarh and Rampur), which went to BJP in the by-polls. Mulayam’s stronghold, Mainpuri Lok Sabha, is now the third seat lost by SP. The question now is – can SP at least retain this seat, or will it go to the BJP again?

Mulayam Singh Yadav has won this seat 5 times, but non-consecutively (except 2009-14). Samajwadi Party has won this seat consecutively since 1996. This seat has always been a stronghold of SP. However, in the past few years, the vote share of SP has gone down. From 2014, when his grandson Tej Pratap Singh won with over 32% margin over BJP’s Prem Singh Shakya, the margin in 2019 was barely 9% – even though Mulayam himself contested. Even the 5 Assembly segments under Mainpuri Lok Sabha were threatened. In 2022, two of the five seats were won by BJP (Bhongaon and Mainpuri), when in the past, all 5 used to be won by SP. Both Yogi Adityanath and Modi factors have reduced the influence of SP in Mainpuri. This was also exacerbated by the internal conflicts of the Yadav clan – differences between Shivpal and nephew Akhilesh.

Caste wise, it is clear why Mainpuri was a Samajwadi Party bastion. Almost 4.25 lakh voters belong to the Yadav community, which forms approximately 20% of the votebase. The Shakya community consists of 3.25 lakh voters. Both these strong OBC groups used to vote for SP. The constituency is actually Mulayam Singh Yadav (popularly known as ‘Netaji’)’s home constituency. It was the first Lok Sabha seat in which he contested and won, way back in 1996.

In this by-election, which took place on 5 December 2022, both major parties projected new faces.

SP decided to nominate Dimple Yadav, the daughter-in-law of Netaji, and the wife of former CM Akhilesh Yadav. Her candidature even led to the union of the Yadav family, with PSP(L) head Shivpal Singh Yadav campaigning in favor of Dimple. Her electoral history is tainted – she won in 2012 only when her husband vacated the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat to become the CM, and in 2014, when the opposition withdrew the nominations. Whenever she has been in a real competition, like in 2009 against Raj Babbar (INC) or in 2019 against Subrat Pathak (BJP), she has lost. However, again, this time, she has the advantage of her father-in-law’s illustrious career and on-ground popularity.

BJP decided to project Raghuraj Singh Shakya, who very recently quit PSP(L). He has served as an SP MLA from Etawah Assembly from 2012-17, and as an MP from Etawah Lok Sabha, from 1999 to 2009. After that, the seat became reserved for SCs, and hence Shakya could not contest. His decision to join BJP may have been fueled by the internal differences within SP and PSP(L), and his admiration of PM Narendra Modi.

Leadtech’s top analysts have been involved in UP elections since 2008. With a tremendous amount of caste data collected by our surveyors over the years and through the elections, Leadtech has a high accuracy in result prediction.

BJP, in this case, has higher chances of winning Mainpuri, mainly due to the caste consolidation. They will receive support from communities like Shakyas (original SP loyalists), Thakurs, Brahmins, and Lodhi. The Dalit vote will be split, and a small percentage of Yadav vote will go to BJP too. BJP has already shown that it plans to capture every by-poll and take back seats that they could not win in 2019. Their on-ground campaigning, combined with Modi’s national appeal, has resulted in a lot of success for BJP in even traditional SP seats. Dimple’s only benefit this election is the sympathy vote, which she will garner due to her father-in-law’s passing. Besides this, the caste factor will not work in SP’s favor this election.

The results for the by-poll are expected to come on 8 December 2022. If SP manages to retain it, their representation in Lok Sabha will increase to 3 – or else, it will be a humiliation for them and raise questions about their future in Uttar Pradesh. Another consequence will be that if she loses, there will be no member of the Yadav clan in either Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha – which will be a first for the family since 1996.

GET IN TOUCH

[contact-form-7]

The post Mainpuri By-Election – SP Might Lose Yet Another Lok Sabha Seat appeared first on Leadtech Consulting Pvt Ltd.

There are only two states in the country where Congress is ruling independently, without the support of a coalition partner – Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Although Chhattisgarh, after 15 years of BJP rule, gave the mandate to INC in the last election (2018), Rajasthan has a so-called tennis court arrangement. Since 1998, every term, the party in power changes, andthe other one takes control. Since 1998, only 2 people, Ashok Gehlot and Vasundhra Raje, have served as the Chief Minister, on and off. What’s more – it’s a well known fact among political circles that these two opposing forces are actually friends.

While Congress suffered in multiple states since their loss in Lok Sabha beginning 2014, Rajasthan was one of the few states that they won in, and didn’t lose out to political crises like in MP and Karnataka. It certainly wasn’t due to Gehlot’s good governance – his present term has been full of controversies and scandals. Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s speech in September earlier this year highlighted some of the broken promises – the collapse of law and order, high VAT and power tariffs, unemployment, and many more.

Some allege that Vasundhra Raje is the reason why Gehlot is still in power. It is no secret that Raje has been sidelined from Rajasthan politics almost altogether. She has served two full terms, with many successful schemes, but due to her differences with the BJP high command, Amit Shah in particular, she is no longer involved in the state. She holds no posts – Satish Poonia is the state party president and former state minister Gulab Chand Kataria is the Leader of Opposition despite having a former CM in the assembly. She has the ceremonial post of National Vice President, but no control in her home state. It is not far-fetched for the public to assume that after being denied opportunities, Raje would work against the party, or at least, not find motivation to help the party.

Despite Raje’s present position, and her potential to prevent BJP forming government next year when Rajasthan goes to the polls, BJP is not in crisis-mode yet. There is no lack of influential leaders from the state. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, for instance, is a gold-medal candidate for the Chief Minister. Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, the MP from Jodhpur, also is favored by Modi-Shah, even though his influence is mainly restricted to Western Rajasthan. There are many underdogs who are also vying for the seat, but the decision “will be up to the party”, they
all claim.

Despite Raje’s present position, and her potential to prevent BJP forming government next year when Rajasthan goes to the polls, BJP is not in crisis-mode yet. There is no lack of influential leaders from the state. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, for instance, is a gold-medal candidate for the Chief Minister. Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, the MP from Jodhpur, also is favored by Modi-Shah, even though his influence is mainly restricted to Western Rajasthan. There are many underdogs who are also vying for the seat, but the decision “will be up to the party”, they all claim.

On the first glance, one may assess Congress’s position in the state as strong, but the party has its own complications. For starters, the CM face for the party is still dubious. 3 term incumbent Ashok Gehlot seems like the more natural choice, but Sachin Pilot has been aiming for the seat for a long time. Even though Gehlot gave up the Congress presidential post to safeguard his position in the state, it would be interesting to see who Mallikarjun Kharge would pick for the face next year. If at all they decide to go with Pilot, a begrudged Gehlot might work Raje-style and help Congress lose. Besides leadership, Congress also has the problem of caste-based vote consolidation – a strategy BJP is a master of, but Congress lately seems to have lost an understanding of. Ultimately, it will depend upon the on-ground work both parties undertake.

LEADTECH has been a pioneer in Election Management since its inception in 2008. From assisting individual candidates in their constituencies to whole parties in over 20 states, LEADTECH has focused on improving leadership with the help of technology. Contact us to find more information about our past work and how we can help you win in your constituency next year.

GET IN TOUCH

[contact-form-7]

The post Bharat Jodo Yatra Set to Enter Rajasthan Soon – but Can Congress Retain the State? appeared first on Leadtech Consulting Pvt Ltd.

The post Is Samajwadi Party on a Path to Revival for 2024 Lok Sabha Elections? appeared first on Leadtech Consulting Pvt Ltd.