The much-anticipated Delhi Assembly elections are just around the corner scheduled for February 2025. The political landscape of Delhi will be interesting to observe as much has transpired over the past four years. After 10 years in power, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is facing backlash due to corruption allegations that include the liquor scam, the Swati Maliwal controversy, and investigations by the Enforcement Directorate and CBI on senior AAP leaders like Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, and Sanjay Singh. Additionally, public discontent has emerged around key issues like pollution, stagnation of public transport and infrastructure, and cleanliness of the Yamuna River. Meanwhile the Bhartiya Janta Party will try to increase their seats in the Delhi Assembly and increase their influence in the capital. The congress will try to revive itself in the region as they were wiped out in the previous elections.
Uphill Battle for AAP
The Aam Aadmi Party emerged from the anti-corruption movement in the early 2010s, led by Anna Hazare. AAP contested its first election in 2013 but lost power within 50 days. After re-elections in 2015, they secured an overwhelming majority in both 2015 and 2020, winning more than 60 seats in each election. However, the party has faced scrutiny over the last four years due to various corruption allegations. Beginning with the liquor scam, Senior AAP leaders, including Arvind Kejriwal, were accused of favouring certain business entities in exchange for bribes for securing licence to sell alcohol. The Enforcement Directorate claimed that kickbacks exceeding ₹100 crores were paid during the policy formulation and that these funds were later used in the Punjab and Goa assembly elections.
Another setback occurred before the 2024 Lok Sabha election when a Rajya Sabha MP of the party, Swati Maliwal, accused Arvind Kejriwal’s PA of physical assault at Kejriwal’s residence. The party faced heavy criticism as its leaders expressed contradicting views on the matter. AAP has also been criticized for its failure to clean the Yamuna River. These issues highlight vulnerabilities in the party’s leadership. Moreover, Kejriwal’s resignation and the appointment of Atishi Marlena as interim Chief Minister signalled an internal upheaval.
Another challenge for AAP will be their I.N.D.I.A alliance partner- the Congress as there will be no alliance between the parties. A senior AAP leader said that “”Unlike Lok Sabha polls, where the alliance was the need of the hour to prevent the splitting of votes, AAP does not need any support from Congress in state elections”. However, with the voter discontent, this can lead to a split in votes which will hamper their performance.
BJP’s Rising Confidence
The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), which is the main opposition in Delhi Assembly, is determined to challenge AAP and the Congress. Their success in the 2024 general elections, where they won all seven seats in Delhi, has boosted their confidence. The BJP has shifted its focus to local issues, such as water shortages, pollution, and the deteriorating transportation system. This strategy marks a departure from solely relying on national leadership charisma, such as that of PM Modi. Emerging local leaders like Adesh Gupta, Kapil Mishra, and Devinder Kumar Sherawat could play crucial roles in the upcoming elections.
As the Assembly elections are near, the BJP is considering former mayors, ex-NDMC members and Delhi unit presidents for candidacy in AAP-held constituencies. According to sources, potential contenders include former MPs like Parvesh Verma, Meenakshi Lekhi, and Ramesh Bidhuri, former NDMC chairperson Satish Upadhyay and ex-mayor Arti Mehra. A party insider also hinted that two former MP’s and a senior NDMC (New Delhi Municipal Council) member are in contention to fight from the New Delhi seat represented by AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal as well as the Greater Kailash seat which AAP minister Saurabh Bharadwaj represents (Source- Indian Express). This strategy focuses on leveraging experienced local leaders to contest against the current AAP representatives.
End of AAP’s Dominance?
The 2025 assembly polls will test AAP’s ability to maintain dominance after being in power for a decade. In the 2020 assembly polls, the party won 62 out of 70 seats and relied on its core voter base, including lower-income groups and minority communities. However, there is a possibility of losing support from urban middle-class voters and youth as they are frustrated with the “freebie culture” which is taking a toll on their incomes.
Furthermore, the capital is facing a financial crisis for the first time in 30 years, with the 2024-2025 budget predicting a deficit of ₹1,495.48 crores. The lack of sympathy for Kejriwal was evident during the general elections when the AAP-Congress alliance lost all seats in Delhi. These factors could potentially end AAP’s dominance in the assembly.
Expectations from the Elections
While political experts will give an edge to the BJP, voting patterns in Delhi continue to be unpredictable. Although Delhi voters tend to favour the BJP during general elections, they have chosen AAP over both BJP and Congress for local issues. This trend was evident in the 2020 Delhi Assembly election and the 2022 MCD polls, where AAP won 134 out of 250 seats. While AAP may lose its overwhelming majority, it remains a strong contender to retain power in the capital.
