The term Monsoon derives from the Arabic word which means a seasonal reversal in the direction of winds. It is well-known fact that agriculture is the backbone of the Indian economy but due to its high dependence, is considered a gamble against the Monsoon. Monsoon plays a key role particularly in the season of kharif but it has deep-rooted consequences on the economy and our lives throughout the year. As economists say “the impacts of Demonetization and GST are still visible on our economy but covid-19 added fuel in the fire. In 2020-21 we have witnessed worst ever contraction in our economy while agriculture registered 3.6% positive growth”. In this article, we have tried to establish the relation between Monsoon and Indian economy and the impact of covid-19.

How monsoon can affect the Indian Economy

Monsoon is likely to be normal this year in India, marking a hat trick as per Skynet. It has also said that the South-West monsoon in 2021 is likely to be normal at 103% of the LPA which starts from June, brings India 70% of its annual rainfall.

India agriculture and food supply:

As Indian agriculture is heavily dependent on monsoon that’s why for farmers, water is more valuable than gold. Approximately 65% to 70% of people are dependent on agriculture and allied activities either directly or indirectly and around derived their livelihoods. Agriculture to GDP contribution stands for 19% (subject to vary based on revised estimation). There is a direct relationship between food security and monsoon. A decrease in monsoon results in low production of food grains, increase price rise, and low demand that affects the whole food supply chain.

Impacts on GDP:

As per the latest figure agriculture in India contributes around 19.9% to GDP. Any changes in the monsoon pattern would affect the volume of agriculture production, decrease in the availability of raw materials for the industries/sectors dependent on agriculture that results in an overall reduction in economic activities.

Balance of trade:

Balance of trade is also depend on changes in monsoon. If the monsoon is favorable then there would be an increased in the volume of production. While in case of failure of monsoon then there would be a negative balance of trade which resulted into the fall of revenue and increased in government expenditure.

Rural Economy:

India predominantly being an agriculture driven economy and roughly 65% to 70% of the population depends on agriculture and are driving their livelihoods through agricultural and allied activities. Rural economy has played a critical role in the lives of masses (as the majority of people reside in the rural area). It helps in providing farms related employment, eradicating poverty, and channelizing cash flow but as stated above that monsoon like a gamble. Failure of monsoon would affect the whole cycle of the rural economy, their livelihoods, and increase in government expenditure.

Why monsoon is important to recover the Indian Economy from Pandemic

A good monsoon plays a very important role in the Indian Economy due to the following reasons. 60%-70% of our population is dependent on agriculture. 56% of India’s net sown area (land of which cultivation is done at least once a year) is dependent upon monsoon for watering the crops. 56% area produces around 44% of India’s agricultural output. A good monsoon results in a good harvest and bumper production. For the past 2 years, 2019-20 and 2020-21, food grains production in India has touched a record high.

Key Highlights: Survey facts from Ministry

The finance minister, Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the economy survey 2020-21 on January29, 2021 and stated that in 2020-21, the growth rate of agriculture is estimated to be 3.4%, while the contribution of the sector to GVA (gross value added) declined from 18.3% to 17.8% between 2014-15 and 2019-20. It is estimated to increase to 19.9% in 2020-21. This is because the agricultural sector faced not much disturbance on an account of the COVID-19 pandemic as compared to the non-agricultural sector.

How Pandemic has effect the Indian Economy over a year (in context of monsoon)

Agriculture Marketing:

Bumper production increases the food security of the country, this leads to an increase in stocks which are then used to provide free ration to the poor. India currently has 3.5 times more stocks than the buffer norms fixed in January 2015. These stocks were used last year to provide free ration to 80 crore beneficiaries for 8 months to help them tide over the economic devastation caused by the pandemic and the lockdowns. This policy is being implemented this year in the second wave as well. A normal south-west monsoon along with comfortable buffer stocks should help to keep cereal price pressures in check. The weightage of food items in the Consumer Price Index which is used to measure inflation is 50%.

Market Rise:

A normal south-west monsoon along with comfortable buffer stocks should help to keep cereal price pressures in check. The weightage of food items in the Consumer Price Index which is used to measure inflation is 50%. Hence a normal monsoon would ensure that inflation remains in the band of 4%-6% as targeted by the Reserve Bank of India. Low inflation will help the Reserve Bank of India to continue with its stance of keeping interest rates low. Generally, central banks resort to an increase in interest rates to tackle high inflation. A low rate scenario is required at a time when the Indian economy is battling the economic fallout of the pandemic. This will help fuel growth as it makes credit affordable. High rates will be a dampener at this juncture.

Effecting the rural sector:

India is a predominantly rural economy with 65% of the population residing in villages. The rural economy contributes 45%-50% to our gross domestic product. India is a predominantly consumption-dependent economy unlike China which is export-oriented. A higher rural income after a good harvest will boost demand for consumer goods, two-wheelers, and tractors. Consumption accounts for 55% of GDP, however, growth has been impacted in the last year due to the pandemic. A normal monsoon will provide a boost to rural incomes, rural demand, overall consumption, and hence to the GDP as well.

Inflation:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 6.6% in 2020-21 (April-December). The inflation mainly due to food inflation which increased from 6.7% in 2019-20 to 9.1% in 2020-21 (April-December).

As stated above that agriculture is a gamble against the monsoon and it has social, economic, and political repercussions. The impacts of the Monsoon are not only confined to crops but also cut across the industries as well. Therefore we need to have a sound agricultural policy along with basic infrastructural developments so that we could increase our resilience power, minimize the risk against unprecedented challenges posed by Covid-19, and build our capacity and capability as well.

Due to corona pandemic, Bihar 2020 legislative assembly elections may be postponed for six months. President rule may be imposed if the situation does not improve.

With no signs of repeal of Covid-19, the Bihar Assembly elections, which are less than 160 days apart, are likely to be postponed and President’s rule will be implemented in the state, sources in the Election Commission and in Delhi Political institutions have indicated.

As per rules, the election process in the state is to be completed by 12 November 2015. It is pertinent to mention that in 2015, elections in Bihar were held in five phases which started from 12 October and lasted till 5 November.

A Union minister told The Sunday Guardian: “It is too early to say anything, but the option of postponing the election is being discussed. If the situation does not change (in relation to Covid-19) in the coming weeks, then representatives of all parties will have to sit together and call. We cannot put the lives of so many people in danger. The election process involves mobilization of people and this is not appropriate in the present circumstances. We have adequate provisions in the Constitution to deal with such developments. “

South Korea model simulation of organized elections?

On 23 April, Election Commissioner Ashok Lavasa had stated that the Election Commission was considering the way South Korea had conducted its parliamentary polls on 15 April amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, while it may sound very good that top Delhi-based officers in the Election Commission of India are looking to emulate the South Korean model, the difference between Bihar and South Korea is likely to bring a rude shock to those who think that the model executed in South Korea will be successful in Bihar.

How did South Korea conduct its elections?

Out of the almost 4.40 crore people of the entire 5.16 crore total population of South Korea, who were eligible to vote, 66% or 2.9 crore turned up to vote. The population density of South Korea, where literacy rate is 97%, is 503 people per square kilometer.

The over 14,000 polling booths in the country were extensively disinfected and the temperature of the voters was checked at the polling booth entrance. All the electoral officials were given PPE suits. Anyone who was found to have more than normal temperature was sent to a designated area from where they could cast their vote. It was made compulsory for voters to use hand sanitizers and wear disposable plastic gloves before entering the booth to cast their ballots. Covid-19 infected patients and people in self-isolation were also able to exercise their voting right as special voting booths were set up at government-run isolation centers, while those under self-quarantine were allowed to leave their homes to vote after polling booths was closed to the public at 6 p.m.

What is the same number in Bihar?

The population of Bihar as per the 2011 census was 10.30 crore which is expected to be more than 12 crore now, more than twice that of South Korea.

Bihar is India’s most densely populated state with a population density of 1,106 people per sq km, with Patna having a density of 1,803 per square km. The state’s literacy rate is 64%. As per Election Commission officials based in Patna, the number of voters in the state is around 7.19 crore, almost double that of South Korea.

The numbers of senior citizen voters in the state are: 60-69 years (64 lakh), 70-79 years (3.09 crore) and 80 years plus (13 lakh). In effect, close to 4 crore voters are those who are most vulnerable to Covid-19. Till 6 May, Bihar had conducted 29,500 tests out of which 550 were found to be Covid-19 positive.

For the 243 Assembly seats, the number of polling booths that the Election Commission has created are 72723, almost five times that of South Korea.

In the 2015 polls, 750 companies of Central Armed Police Forces (one company has roughly 150-250) men and almost 3.27 lakh polling personnel were deployed for a free and fair elections.

“In South Korea, strict social distancing norms were followed even during the campaigning with the candidates not allowed to come in close contact with the voters during canvassing. How do you expect that to be repeated in Bihar where last time there were 3,500 contestants who moved around almost 140 towns and 45,000 villages? Who will stop them from handshaking or taking a garland from their supporters? Will they give PPE suits to almost 5-6 lakh officials and security forces who will be engaged in conducting the polls? How will the polling officers in booths ensure social distancing in populated places? Officers sitting in Delhi come up with fancy ideas which are impossible to execute on the ground. The South Korea model is not feasible on the ground. We hope that we are not pushed to do something that cannot be done,” a Patna-based government official, who has been part of multiple polling exercises, said.

The Election Commission can also go for the Indonesian model, if it has to go for a foreign model. On 4 May, Indonesian President Joko Widodo signed a law that allowed the postponement of the regional elections that were slated to be held in the country on 23 September to December or even longer depending on the situation of the Covid-19 pandemic in the world’s fourth most populous nation.

Responding to The Sunday Guardian’s queries on holding of elections in Bihar, Election Commission spokesperson Sheyphali Sharan said that the updates regarding the issue of Bihar and whether the EC was considering emulating the “South Korean’ model was shared on the ECI website.

The Chief Electoral Officer of Bihar, H.R. Srinivasa, did not respond to The Sunday Guardian’s calls and text messages, seeking response to how the election body was preparing for the elections scheduled for October.

source SUNDAY GUARDIAN LIVE 2020