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Election 2022 Election News

Congress Free India: How Far From Reality

Congress Free India How Far From Reality

The ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges in our lives. The effects of demonetization, mismanagement of covid-19 in many parts of India, Job crisis and the low number of sitting in the parliament where vital issues are being discussed and debated and above all the role of opposition parties in raising the voice of voiceless people are the major cause of concern. The recent developments in Indian Electoral Politics have changed the narratives and our perspectives too about the style of leadership, hereditary nature of Indian leadership, the role of coherent ideology, the manner in which decisions being made and implemented and political parties approach towards reaching the various social groups, etc.  As many political experts say that despite having declined in electoral politics since 2014, one cannot imagine the Indian politics without the Congress party and it still plays a pivot role.

This article has focused on the current state of Indian politics and the speedy decline of the Congress party from National politics particularly after 2014 and the possible ways forward.

 Glimpses of INC performance in the general election from 2004 to 2019  

From 2004 to 2014 the congress party with help of other regional parties was able to form a govt. by defeating the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP.

However, there are many theories, as propagated by political experts, around the decline of the Congress party. Many political pundits have argued that it has created a space for political entrepreneurs that led to various corruption scams such as the earlier Bofors scam, 2G scam, Sahara Scam, and poor governance system while others believed that lack of charismatic leadership, connectivity with masses, and social engineering of caste groups, etc. Many political observers even including ex-congress leaders (now in BJP) have mentioned that their personal growth has stagnated and decision-making process has been hijacked by a few veteran leaders that led to suffocation. For instance, referring to Rahul Gandhi, “Our once and future king” tweeted by a senior leader of the Congress party on the death anniversary of Rajiv Gandhi. What does it show? Do we believe in democracy or chamchagiri?  While on other hand pursuing president Pranab Mukherjee and giving a warm and emotional farewells to senior leader Gulan Nabi Azad was another political gesture of BJP.

Politicians Who Thought to Left the INC

  1. Milind Deora who thought to left the INC as INC didn’t like his idea on Article 370. Since he supported the BJP’s strong decision on the suspension of Article 370 but congress party simply opposed his ideological stand.
  2. Sachin Pilot was another politician who was quite in news for going against the INC. The simple reason going against the party in Rajasthan was all hard work and Party campaigning was done by him but CM candidature offered to Ashok Gahlot.

All is not well in the Congress Party

Here is the list of prominent leaders who were earlier in the congress party but now have left and joined BJP as if   

  1. Jitin Prasad
  2. Jyotiraditya Scindia
  3. Chaudhary Birender Singh
  4. Rita Bahuguna Joshi
  5. Tom Vedakkan and the list goes on.

Many political scientists believe that lack of consistency in policy decisions and policy actions, no coherent ideological commitment, growing Left-Congress synergy, and of course lack of personal growth of leaders, etc. are the possible reasons. For instance, Left-Congress Synergy has been unproductive as well as confusing for common party workers. In West Bengal they (Congress and Left together) fought election against Mamta Banerjee but what about in Kerala where Congress and Left parties were contested against each other.

Way forward

In the 2019 general election Rahul Gandhi was defeated by Smriti Irani in the Amethi Lok Sabha seat but manage to get elected from Wayanad (Kerala). In August 2020, G-23 i.e. 23 senior leaders of the Congress party have expressed their concerns to interim party Chief Sonia Gandhi. They have expressed their views on the poor performance of the Congress party in two consecutive general elections, bringing all structural reforms, self-introspection, and strategizing for upcoming elections. Even the post of Congress party president is still waiting for a full-time president. It was a clear political gesture to the congress party to rethink or purnavichar, restructure its party composition and bring fresh and young people to the party. But as being acknowledged by BJP-RSS senior leaders that still the congress party is the biggest challenger to the BJP party despite having a continuous decline. It is because it has managed to secure approx. 20% of total votes in two general elections i.e. 2014 and 2019 while the rest of the parties (excluding BJP) were not able to cross double-digit. It means at the bottom side it has maintained the status quo. Any increase in this percentage will surely affect the BJP vote share and would have led to a coalition government as well. Gandhi’s Family is still key to the Congress party that’s why Modi-Shah led BJP party keeps on attacking Gandhi Family. The Congress party needs to focus on

  1. To understand the changing nature of young voters, their aspirations and demography dividend and do all needful accordingly
  2. Innovative political Strategies and to communicate the masses at a large scale by judicious utilization of ICT platform.
  3. To provide some paces to local/regional parties and help them to form stable government where the Congress party is not in majority. Do not become power-hungry but adaptive according to the prevailing political scenario.
  4. Of course restructure its political organization or even vacating various seats as well otherwise many more leaders are waiting to join the BJP.
Categories
Political research

BJP in UK: Downfall or Strategy Against Mamata Banerjee?

Is it the downfall of the BJP in the U.K or strategy against Mamta Banerjee

The tenure of Uttarakhand’s CM has been in turmoil since the day state was formed. We have witnessed that hardly any CM has completed his full tenure without being faced either internal rivalry or anti-incumbency. Uneven developments in the state, hill vs plain divide, caste equation and above all leader’s personal relation with central high command (Delhi), etc. being considered for political instability.  As many political pundits observed that the exit of two BJP chief Ministers i.e. Trivendra Singh Rawat and Tirath Singh Rawat was not just a constitutional crisis.  Let’s go into the deeper analysis of political developments that have increased political instability in the state.

Trivendra Singh Rawat (18th March 2017 to 10th March 2021):

He remained in the office for 3 years and 357 days. Many political observers have cited various reasons for the resignation of Trivdendra Singh Rawat such as
(a) his due to distance relationship with BJP central leadership i.e. Modi-Shah,
(b) Putting restriction in the organization of Kumbh Mela,
(c) Over-dependence on Bureaucracy,
(d) Internal rivalry within BJP and lack of expansion of the cabinet, etc.

In order to unite all factions, BJP high command appointed Madan Kaushik as Uttarakhand Chief and asked him to assess the ground reality. Meanwhile ignoring the fact that Tirath Singh Rawat was not a leader of masses being elevated to the post of CM due to his close relationship with Bhagat Singh Koshyari, a committed RSS pracharak and current governor of the state of Maharashtra. While neglecting Anil Baluni and Dhan Singh Rawat, both are close to RSS and enjoy goodwill in central leadership as well.

Tirath Singh Rawat (10th March 2021 to 4th July 2021):

After becoming the CM, Tirath Singh Rawat reversed many vital decisions of his predecessor Mr. Trivendra Singh Rawat such as
(a) Organizing Kumbh Mela in the midst of covid-19 and putting people’s lives in danger,
(b) Commitment to disband Char Dham Devasthanam Board
(c) Putting on hold of creation of commissioner ate at Gairsain
(d) Questioning women/girls who were wearing ripped jeans, etc.

Below we have highlighted two issues that triggered the politics of Uttarakhand as if

Kumbh Mela the super spreader of Covid-19 second waves:

Kumbh Mela means a lot to Sanatanies and to Hindus and so as the responsibility. The responsibility bearer should make clear and strict decisions and address the guidelines to the public of the State and the people who will visit the Mela from other States. Rather than this, he (Mr. Tirath Singh Rawat) took the decision to remove the requirement of the Covid test. He further said, “Kumbh happens only after 12 years. Therefore, we do not want people to miss on the opportunities of experiencing the festivals”. So, this left him surrounded by controversies, and courting the controversies over the fake RT-PCR test during the Kumbh Mela and mismanagement of the issue had also affected his goodwill.

Opening of tourism Sector:

To boost the tourism sector, the hotelier requested the former CM to remove the restriction of RT-PCR in tourists and allow hotels to operate 50%-75% occupancy. Just to boost the tourism sector during Covid-19, when the corona was at its peak, it obviously questions the government whether they were putting the entire state at stake just to boost the tourism sector.

Is BJP indirectly trying to target the Mamta Banerjee?

On the 3rd of July, 2021 in front of the Union Minister Mr. Narendra Singh Tomar and other BJP leaders a new CM will be assigned to the State, since Mr. Tirath Singh Rawat filed the resignation within 4 months of minister ship of the State. For this reason he could not handle the situation of the state, which lead the state to instability. “Target is not Tirath Singh Rawat but Mamata Banerjee. Tirath Singh was the sacrificed goat who had been sacrificed to ensure that Mamta did not get elected. The way she has challenged the prime minister. We all know the PM does not accept any challenges. We have seen what happened to L K Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi” said Congress MLA and deputy leader of the opposition Karana Mahra in an interview.

Let’s have a look at legal provisions:

As per article 164 (4) of the Constitution, “a Minister who for any period of six consecutive months is not a member of the Legislature of the State shall at the expiration of that period cease to be a Minister. Further, Section 151 (A) of Representation of People Act 1951 says that by-elections to be held for Parliament or State Legislature for a vacant seats within 6 months. If we read Section 151 (A) with Article 164 (4) then it lays down two conditions:
(I) if the period of the vacant seat is less than a year then there is no need to conduct by-election
(II) if the Election Commission of India in the consultation with Central Government certifies that it is difficult to held by-election within the stipulated time period.

Therefore the central authority of the BJP has not willing to support of by-election in the state of Uttarakhand that resulted in resignation of Tirath Singh Rawat. Many political pundits said that it might affect Mamata Banerjee’s CM candidature as well.

In case of Unicameral Legislature:

Unlike Maharashtra both Uttarakhand, as well as West Bengal, have a unicameral legislature means one house i.e.  State legislative assembly. In the bicameral legislature, as it happened in the state of Maharashtra, where after having lots of political tension between the Governor, Shiv Sena, and BJP, Mr. Uddhav Thakarey was nominated from the state legislative council. But in the case of West Bengal, the situation is different and that’s why all political pundits keep a bird’s eye view on 5th November.

Supreme Court in SR Chaudhary vs State of Punjab in 2001 clearly ruled out that a person cannot become a minister or a chief minister again after the expiry of 6 months if he is not elected. Upon asking about the recent constitutional crisis in the state of West Bengal and Uttarakhand and to disallow a by-election, the former president of Supreme Court Bar Association Dudhyant Dave said, “I don’t think this argument will hold water before the law court. Elections were held in Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry at the height of the pandemic. How can they stop this now? The court will not permit it”. Lastly, much depend on the newly appointed chief election commissioner that how he would assess the ground situation, and whether he allows to conduct the election or not.

Categories
Pandemic

Can Monsoon be a game changer for the Indian Economy during Covid-19?

Can Monsoon be a game changer for the Indian Economy during Covid-19

The term Monsoon derives from the Arabic word which means a seasonal reversal in the direction of winds. It is well-known fact that agriculture is the backbone of the Indian economy but due to its high dependence, is considered a gamble against the Monsoon. Monsoon plays a key role particularly in the season of kharif but it has deep-rooted consequences on the economy and our lives throughout the year. As economists say “the impacts of Demonetization and GST are still visible on our economy but covid-19 added fuel in the fire. In 2020-21 we have witnessed worst ever contraction in our economy while agriculture registered 3.6% positive growth”. In this article, we have tried to establish the relation between Monsoon and Indian economy and the impact of covid-19.

How monsoon can affect the Indian Economy

Monsoon is likely to be normal this year in India, marking a hat trick as per Skynet. It has also said that the South-West monsoon in 2021 is likely to be normal at 103% of the LPA which starts from June, brings India 70% of its annual rainfall.

India agriculture and food supply:  

As Indian agriculture is heavily dependent on monsoon that’s why for farmers, water is more valuable than gold. Approximately 65% to 70% of people are dependent on agriculture and allied activities either directly or indirectly and around derived their livelihoods. Agriculture to GDP contribution stands for 19% (subject to vary based on revised estimation). There is a direct relationship between food security and monsoon. A decrease in monsoon results in low production of food grains, increase price rise, and low demand that affects the whole food supply chain.

Impacts on GDP:

As per the latest figure agriculture in India contributes around 19.9% to GDP. Any changes in the monsoon pattern would affect the volume of agriculture production, decrease in the availability of raw materials for the industries/sectors dependent on agriculture that results in an overall reduction in economic activities.

Balance of trade:

Balance of trade is also depend on changes in monsoon. If the monsoon is favorable then there would be an increased in the volume of production. While in case of failure of monsoon then there would be a negative balance of trade which resulted into the fall of revenue and increased in government expenditure.

Rural Economy:

India predominantly being an agriculture driven economy and roughly 65% to 70% of the population depends on agriculture and are driving their livelihoods through agricultural and allied activities. Rural economy has played a critical role in the lives of masses (as the majority of people reside in the rural area). It helps in providing farms related employment, eradicating poverty, and channelizing cash flow but as stated above that monsoon like a gamble. Failure of monsoon would affect the whole cycle of the rural economy, their livelihoods, and increase in government expenditure.

Why monsoon is important to recover the Indian Economy from Pandemic

A good monsoon plays a very important role in the Indian Economy due to the following reasons. 60%-70% of our population is dependent on agriculture. 56% of India’s net sown area (land of which cultivation is done at least once a year) is dependent upon monsoon for watering the crops. 56% area produces around 44% of India’s agricultural output. A good monsoon results in a good harvest and bumper production. For the past 2 years, 2019-20 and 2020-21, food grains production in India has touched a record high.

Key Highlights: Survey facts from Ministry

The finance minister, Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the economy survey 2020-21 on January29, 2021 and stated that in 2020-21, the growth rate of agriculture is estimated to be 3.4%, while the contribution of the sector to GVA (gross value added) declined from 18.3% to 17.8% between 2014-15 and 2019-20. It is estimated to increase to 19.9% in 2020-21. This is because the agricultural sector faced not much disturbance on an account of the COVID-19 pandemic as compared to the non-agricultural sector.

How Pandemic has effect the Indian Economy over a year (in context of monsoon)

Agriculture Marketing:

Bumper production increases the food security of the country, this leads to an increase in stocks which are then used to provide free ration to the poor. India currently has 3.5 times more stocks than the buffer norms fixed in January 2015. These stocks were used last year to provide free ration to 80 crore beneficiaries for 8 months to help them tide over the economic devastation caused by the pandemic and the lockdowns. This policy is being implemented this year in the second wave as well. A normal south-west monsoon along with comfortable buffer stocks should help to keep cereal price pressures in check. The weightage of food items in the Consumer Price Index which is used to measure inflation is 50%.

Market Rise:

A normal south-west monsoon along with comfortable buffer stocks should help to keep cereal price pressures in check. The weightage of food items in the Consumer Price Index which is used to measure inflation is 50%. Hence a normal monsoon would ensure that inflation remains in the band of 4%-6% as targeted by the Reserve Bank of India. Low inflation will help the Reserve Bank of India to continue with its stance of keeping interest rates low. Generally, central banks resort to an increase in interest rates to tackle high inflation. A low rate scenario is required at a time when the Indian economy is battling the economic fallout of the pandemic. This will help fuel growth as it makes credit affordable. High rates will be a dampener at this juncture.

Effecting the rural sector:

India is a predominantly rural economy with 65% of the population residing in villages. The rural economy contributes 45%-50% to our gross domestic product. India is a predominantly consumption-dependent economy unlike China which is export-oriented. A higher rural income after a good harvest will boost demand for consumer goods, two-wheelers, and tractors. Consumption accounts for 55% of GDP, however, growth has been impacted in the last year due to the pandemic. A normal monsoon will provide a boost to rural incomes, rural demand, overall consumption, and hence to the GDP as well.

Inflation:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 6.6% in 2020-21 (April-December). The inflation mainly due to food inflation which increased from 6.7% in 2019-20 to 9.1% in 2020-21 (April-December).

As stated above that agriculture is a gamble against the monsoon and it has social, economic, and political repercussions. The impacts of the Monsoon are not only confined to crops but also cut across the industries as well. Therefore we need to have a sound agricultural policy along with basic infrastructural developments so that we could increase our resilience power, minimize the risk against unprecedented challenges posed by Covid-19, and build our capacity and capability as well.

Categories
Assembly Election Election Election 2022 Pandemic Parliament Election Political research

The Rise and Fall of India’s Dalit Queen.

Assembly Election Performance

The outbreak of Covid-19 has posed a serious threat to the Nation with varied impacts from region to region but politics has always been its epicenter. Ongoing Pandemic and its mismanagement has deep- rooted consequences among the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes, women and other vulnerable sections of the society that has raised the issue of social justice. All political parties are gearing up for the upcoming Uttar Pradesh Assembly election 2022. A common phenomenon that run through in all political parties’ manifesto is “social Justice”. BSP claims to be a party of Bahujan and champion of social justice but recent developments within the party are indicating that all is not well.

Recently many prominent leaders have left the BSP party and joined either SP or BJP and they made allegations of her bureaucratic style of working, monopolization, unapproachable, arrogance, and not upholding the legacy of Kanshiram Ji. As these leaders said “kab kisko hata diya jaaye kya pata”. For instance, MLA Aslam Rashid, in an interview, mentioned that 11 BSP MLA trying to form their own party and would seek support from others as well. In the past R. K Chaudhary, Indrajeet Saroj, Naseemuddin Siddiquie, Swami Prasad Maurya and Brijesh Pathak etc. have left the BSP party.

Source: Trivedi Centre for Political Data

The above graph shows the trend of constant decline in the voting percentage of the BSP party but still, the BSP has managed to secure 20% of votes in all consecutive assembly elections. Overall the BSP’s performance has improved but each constituency-wise it has lost its ground considerably. The rise of young Dalits icon Chandra Shekhar Azad and his connectivity with common masses (predominantly Dalit youths), using all means of communication, raising the issue of social justice, and visiting places where atrocities against Dalits being reported and so on have made him a key player in upcoming U.P state assembly election 2022.

    Source: Trivedi Centre for Political Data

As above-trend shows that the BJP party has been successfully transferred SC and OBC votes  considerably due to its social engineering strategy, by capturing the political vacuum created by other political parties, making alliances with small regional parties giving them tickets and portfolios, and also targeting Dalits and MBC i.e. most backward castes such as Mallah, Bind, Rajbhar, Chauhan, Kumhar, Luhar, etc.

The vision of Kanshi ram was to put forward the idea of identity-based representational space for the communities in the Indian Political system and absolute equality, opposed to dynastic control over the party and opportunistic politics. Sadly Mayawati did it all that being avoided by the Kanshi Ram and consequently, BSP has lost the elections and also reducing vote bank particularly among the Balmikis who were traditionally associated with BSP but now shifting to BJP considerably. Therefore BSP requires immediate self-introspection, building good teams of youths, the delegation of power, decentralization, and democratization in the working of party, building trust among the party workers, and gain the faith of common voters.

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