Tag: Lok Sabha

Assembly Election Election Election PR Management Parliament Election

Can an Individual Hold Parliament and Assembly Seats in India?

Post author By Lead Tech
Post date November 1, 2023

A person may run for office in a general election, more than one by-election, or biennial elections from a maximum of two seats under Section 33 of the RPA, 1951.

Candidates were allowed to run in as many constituencies as possible prior to this law. According to Section 70 of the Act, if a candidate wins both seats, they are required to leave one within ten days, calling for a by-election.

As per the Constitution, a person is not allowed to hold more than one seat in a House or serve as a member of both the House of Commons and a state legislature at the same time.

Procedures and timelines for effect:

I. Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha

Article 101(1) of the Constitution, read with Section 68(1) of The Representation of the People Act, 1951 says:

If a person is elected simultaneously to both the Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha, and if he has not yet taken his seat in either House, he can choose, within 10 days from the later of the dates on which he is chosen, which Houses of which he would like to be a member.

The member must intimate his choice in writing to the Secretary to the ECI within the 10-day window, failing which his seat in Rajya Sabha will fall vacant at the end of this period [Sec 68(2), RPA 1951].

The choice, once intimated, is final. [Sec. 68(3), RPA, 1951]

No such option is, however, available to a person who is already a member of one House and has contested the election for membership of the other House.

So, if a sitting Rajya Sabha member contests and wins a Lok Sabha election, his seat in the Upper House becomes automatically vacant on the date he is declared elected to Lok Sabha. The same applies to a Lok Sabha member who contests an election to Rajya Sabha. [Sec 69 read with Sec 67A, RPA 1951]

II. Elected on two Lok Sabha seats

There is no one in this category in the new Lok Sabha. Under Sec. 33(7) of RPA, 1951, an individual can contest from two parliamentary constituencies.

But, if elected from both, he has to resign one seat within 14 days of the declaration of the result, failing which both his seats shall fall vacant. [Sec. 70, RPA, 1951, read with Rule 91 of the Conduct of Elections Rules, 1961]

III. State Assembly and Lok Sabha

Article 101(2) of the Constitution, along with Rule 2 of the Prohibition of Simultaneous Membership Rules, 1950, made by the President under this Article, says:

After being elected to the Lok Sabha, state legislators are required to step down from their positions within 14 days, “from the date of publication in the Gazette of India or in the Official Gazette of the State, whichever is later.” If this doesn’t happen, their Lok Sabha seats will immediately become vacant.

Tags Election strategy firm, How to win assembly election?, Lok Sabha, Preparation to win Assembly election, Preparation to win parliamentary election, Rajya Sabha

Political research

Lok Sabha Absence Puts Rahul Gandhi Back in Spotlight

Post author By Lead Tech
Post date December 17, 2022

The heir to the Gandhi legacy, the present representative of the clan, the Congress PM face since before 2004, the unlucky Gandhi – Rahul Gandhi has been described in many ways. But since Modi’s ascent in 2014, there’s been largely one way to describe him, and that is ridicule. He has been ridiculed for his statements, his leadership, his vacations, his electoral failures, just to list a few. The media has been merciless, his support base has been waning, and his Opposition has been growing stronger. It was expected that after 18 years of vying for the Prime Ministerial seat, his spirit would break and he would retract. If not entirely from politics, then at least just from his party’s front. But Rahul did not do that. Rahul has come back into the limelight, and this time, his publicity isn’t all negative.

On 17 December 2022, Rahul Gandhi was trending on Twitter, with over 60,000 tweets mentioning him. What was that about? A statement he made about the Indian soldiers – more accurately, about the lack of preparement of the Indian Army in comparison to China’s, and questioning the facts of previous surgical strikes which took place under Modi’s rule. Unsurprisingly, it got reactions from the BJP’s elite media team, consisting of personalities like Amit Malviya, Anand Ranganathan, Shehzad Poonawala, amongst others. Ministers like Kiren Rijiju also contributed to this debate. Rahul was likened to Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and news anchors also came down heavily on him.

Yet, despite the whole kerfuffle, Rahul benefitted. This isn’t the first time he has gained media traction this year.

This is because in the year 2022, Congress finally seems to be on a path of revival. Earlier this year, they invited Prashant Kishor of IPAC to fix the party and potentially get involved for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Even though the meeting went awry, it was a good sign for the Grand Old Party, which despite struggling all these years, refused to seek external help. Rahul stopped vying for the Party President seat this year, after years of criticism of the Gandhi family, dynasty politics and nepotism. Mallikarjun Kharge took his place, relieving Rahul of another responsibility. Now Rahul could be free to pursue just one thing – and that was trying to remove BJP from the country. He started with his Bharat Jodo Yatra, but it was ignored by the media. So Rahul is simply trying to bring attention to it.

This is what happens when Rahul trends for his “controversial” statement. A Twitter user may scroll to find the first 3 posts about the statement, but the 4th post will inevitably be about a huge rally, with a salt-and-pepper bearded Rahul waving to them. Even if Rahul’s supporters seem to be reducing, there are over 10,000 tweets daily about the Bharat Jodo Yatra, which go unmissed since such a small number usually would not trend. But add in 50,000 tweets which go against Rahul, and the total tally goes up – and it captures Twitter’s attention. Suddenly Rahul is trending.

The polarized audience continue to stay polarized – prima facie, they still dislike Rahul, they still think he has no chance in any polls – but they are subliminally introduced to the flip side of the coin, which is that Rahul is leading a very successful pad yatra throughout the country. The media manipulation tactics, which were successfully used by BJP through the years – putting money in advertising and wooing mainstream anchors to vocalize their support of the party, are now being countered by Rahul and Congress. He is not only trending on Twitter – even news organizations are having to report on him. And that is better than being out of the limelight like he was for several years. He is finally behaving like an Opposition is supposed to behave.

Social media is a strong tool that the ruling party has mastered using, since the boom of the digital age in India. Other parties still struggle with it, and go for either generic media agencies with low political understanding and/or use internal teams with low media knowledge. Leadtech has a dedicated wing to Digital Management, with a primary focus on social media. Contact us today to find out how we can help capture your audiences.

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Tags Amit Malviya, Anand Ranganathan, Bharat Jodo Yatra, Congress, IPAC, KirenRijiju, leadtech, Lok Sabha, Lok Sabha Election, Modi, Polarization, Prashant Kishor, Rahul Gandhi, Social Media, Sonia Gandhi, Twitter

Election PR Management

Mainpuri By-Election – SP Might Lose Yet Another Lok Sabha Seat

Post author By Lead Tech
Post date December 5, 2022

The whole of Mainpuri is bustling with the cries of SP’s recent campaign slogan, “UP ki Chaabi, Dimple Bhabhi.” After the unexpected passing of SP founder and patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, this by-election is a crucial one for Samajwadi Party. They won only 5 seats in the 2019 general elections due to their Mahagathbandhan Alliance, of which they had already lost 2 seats (Azamgarh and Rampur), which went to BJP in the by-polls. Mulayam’s stronghold, Mainpuri Lok Sabha, is now the third seat lost by SP. The question now is – can SP at least retain this seat, or will it go to the BJP again?

Mulayam Singh Yadav has won this seat 5 times, but non-consecutively (except 2009-14). Samajwadi Party has won this seat consecutively since 1996. This seat has always been a stronghold of SP. However, in the past few years, the vote share of SP has gone down. From 2014, when his grandson Tej Pratap Singh won with over 32% margin over BJP’s Prem Singh Shakya, the margin in 2019 was barely 9% – even though Mulayam himself contested. Even the 5 Assembly segments under Mainpuri Lok Sabha were threatened. In 2022, two of the five seats were won by BJP (Bhongaon and Mainpuri), when in the past, all 5 used to be won by SP. Both Yogi Adityanath and Modi factors have reduced the influence of SP in Mainpuri. This was also exacerbated by the internal conflicts of the Yadav clan – differences between Shivpal and nephew Akhilesh.

Caste wise, it is clear why Mainpuri was a Samajwadi Party bastion. Almost 4.25 lakh voters belong to the Yadav community, which forms approximately 20% of the votebase. The Shakya community consists of 3.25 lakh voters. Both these strong OBC groups used to vote for SP. The constituency is actually Mulayam Singh Yadav (popularly known as ‘Netaji’)’s home constituency. It was the first Lok Sabha seat in which he contested and won, way back in 1996.

In this by-election, which took place on 5 December 2022, both major parties projected new faces.

SP decided to nominate Dimple Yadav, the daughter-in-law of Netaji, and the wife of former CM Akhilesh Yadav. Her candidature even led to the union of the Yadav family, with PSP(L) head Shivpal Singh Yadav campaigning in favor of Dimple. Her electoral history is tainted – she won in 2012 only when her husband vacated the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat to become the CM, and in 2014, when the opposition withdrew the nominations. Whenever she has been in a real competition, like in 2009 against Raj Babbar (INC) or in 2019 against Subrat Pathak (BJP), she has lost. However, again, this time, she has the advantage of her father-in-law’s illustrious career and on-ground popularity.

BJP decided to project Raghuraj Singh Shakya, who very recently quit PSP(L). He has served as an SP MLA from Etawah Assembly from 2012-17, and as an MP from Etawah Lok Sabha, from 1999 to 2009. After that, the seat became reserved for SCs, and hence Shakya could not contest. His decision to join BJP may have been fueled by the internal differences within SP and PSP(L), and his admiration of PM Narendra Modi.

Leadtech’s top analysts have been involved in UP elections since 2008. With a tremendous amount of caste data collected by our surveyors over the years and through the elections, Leadtech has a high accuracy in result prediction.

BJP, in this case, has higher chances of winning Mainpuri, mainly due to the caste consolidation. They will receive support from communities like Shakyas (original SP loyalists), Thakurs, Brahmins, and Lodhi. The Dalit vote will be split, and a small percentage of Yadav vote will go to BJP too. BJP has already shown that it plans to capture every by-poll and take back seats that they could not win in 2019. Their on-ground campaigning, combined with Modi’s national appeal, has resulted in a lot of success for BJP in even traditional SP seats. Dimple’s only benefit this election is the sympathy vote, which she will garner due to her father-in-law’s passing. Besides this, the caste factor will not work in SP’s favor this election.

The results for the by-poll are expected to come on 8 December 2022. If SP manages to retain it, their representation in Lok Sabha will increase to 3 – or else, it will be a humiliation for them and raise questions about their future in Uttar Pradesh. Another consequence will be that if she loses, there will be no member of the Yadav clan in either Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha – which will be a first for the family since 1996.

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Tags Akhilesh Yadav, Dimple Bhabhi, leadtech, Lok Sabha, Lok Sabha Election, Mainpuri, Mulayam Singh Yadav, narendra modi, Samajwadi Party, SP, UP Ki Chaabi

Election PR Management

Bharat Jodo Yatra Enters Rajasthan: Can Congress Hold Power?

Post author By Lead Tech
Post date November 30, 2022

There are only two states in the country where Congress is ruling independently, without the support of a coalition partner – Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Although Chhattisgarh, after 15 years of BJP rule, gave the mandate to INC in the last election (2018), Rajasthan has a so-called tennis court arrangement. Since 1998, every term, the party in power changes, andthe other one takes control. Since 1998, only 2 people, Ashok Gehlot and Vasundhra Raje, have served as the Chief Minister, on and off. What’s more – it’s a well known fact among political circles that these two opposing forces are actually friends.

While Congress suffered in multiple states since their loss in Lok Sabha beginning 2014, Rajasthan was one of the few states that they won in, and didn’t lose out to political crises like in MP and Karnataka. It certainly wasn’t due to Gehlot’s good governance – his present term has been full of controversies and scandals. Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s speech in September earlier this year highlighted some of the broken promises – the collapse of law and order, high VAT and power tariffs, unemployment, and many more.

Some allege that Vasundhra Raje is the reason why Gehlot is still in power. It is no secret that Raje has been sidelined from Rajasthan politics almost altogether. She has served two full terms, with many successful schemes, but due to her differences with the BJP high command, Amit Shah in particular, she is no longer involved in the state. She holds no posts – Satish Poonia is the state party president and former state minister Gulab Chand Kataria is the Leader of Opposition despite having a former CM in the assembly. She has the ceremonial post of National Vice President, but no control in her home state. It is not far-fetched for the public to assume that after being denied opportunities, Raje would work against the party, or at least, not find motivation to help the party.

Despite Raje’s present position, and her potential to prevent BJP forming government next year when Rajasthan goes to the polls, BJP is not in crisis-mode yet. There is no lack of influential leaders from the state. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, for instance, is a gold-medal candidate for the Chief Minister. Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, the MP from Jodhpur, also is favored by Modi-Shah, even though his influence is mainly restricted to Western Rajasthan. There are many underdogs who are also vying for the seat, but the decision “will be up to the party”, they
all claim.

On the first glance, one may assess Congress’s position in the state as strong, but the party has its own complications. For starters, the CM face for the party is still dubious. 3 term incumbent Ashok Gehlot seems like the more natural choice, but Sachin Pilot has been aiming for the seat for a long time. Even though Gehlot gave up the Congress presidential post to safeguard his position in the state, it would be interesting to see who Mallikarjun Kharge would pick for the face next year. If at all they decide to go with Pilot, a begrudged Gehlot might work Raje-style and help Congress lose. Besides leadership, Congress also has the problem of caste-based vote consolidation – a strategy BJP is a master of, but Congress lately seems to have lost an understanding of. Ultimately, it will depend upon the on-ground work both parties undertake.

LEADTECH has been a pioneer in Election Management since its inception in 2008. From assisting individual candidates in their constituencies to whole parties in over 20 states, LEADTECH has focused on improving leadership with the help of technology. Contact us to find more information about our past work and how we can help you win in your constituency next year.

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Tags Bharat Jodo Yatra, BJP, Chhattisgarh, Congress, Election Management, Jodhpur, leadtech, Lok Sabha, Lok Sabha Election, Modi, Om Birla, Rahul Gandhi, Rajasthan, Shah

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