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Lok Sabha Absence Puts Rahul Gandhi Back in Spotlight

The heir to the Gandhi legacy, the present representative of the clan, the Congress PM face since before 2004, the unlucky Gandhi – Rahul Gandhi has been described in many ways. But since Modi’s ascent in 2014, there’s been largely one way to describe him, and that is ridicule. He has been ridiculed for his statements, his leadership, his vacations, his electoral failures, just to list a few. The media has been merciless, his support base has been waning, and his Opposition has been growing stronger. It was expected that after 18 years of vying for the Prime Ministerial seat, his spirit would break and he would retract. If not entirely from politics, then at least just from his party’s front. But Rahul did not do that. Rahul has come back into the limelight, and this time, his publicity isn’t all negative.

On 17 December 2022, Rahul Gandhi was trending on Twitter, with over 60,000 tweets mentioning him. What was that about? A statement he made about the Indian soldiers – more accurately, about the lack of preparement of the Indian Army in comparison to China’s, and questioning the facts of previous surgical strikes which took place under Modi’s rule. Unsurprisingly, it got reactions from the BJP’s elite media team, consisting of personalities like Amit Malviya, Anand Ranganathan, Shehzad Poonawala, amongst others. Ministers like Kiren Rijiju also contributed to this debate. Rahul was likened to Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and news anchors also came down heavily on him.

Yet, despite the whole kerfuffle, Rahul benefitted. This isn’t the first time he has gained media traction this year.

This is because in the year 2022, Congress finally seems to be on a path of revival. Earlier this year, they invited Prashant Kishor of IPAC to fix the party and potentially get involved for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Even though the meeting went awry, it was a good sign for the Grand Old Party, which despite struggling all these years, refused to seek external help. Rahul stopped vying for the Party President seat this year, after years of criticism of the Gandhi family, dynasty politics and nepotism. Mallikarjun Kharge took his place, relieving Rahul of another responsibility. Now Rahul could be free to pursue just one thing – and that was trying to remove BJP from the country. He started with his Bharat Jodo Yatra, but it was ignored by the media. So Rahul is simply trying to bring attention to it.

This is what happens when Rahul trends for his “controversial” statement. A Twitter user may scroll to find the first 3 posts about the statement, but the 4th post will inevitably be about a huge rally, with a salt-and-pepper bearded Rahul waving to them. Even if Rahul’s supporters seem to be reducing, there are over 10,000 tweets daily about the Bharat Jodo Yatra, which go unmissed since such a small number usually would not trend. But add in 50,000 tweets which go against Rahul, and the total tally goes up – and it captures Twitter’s attention. Suddenly Rahul is trending.

The polarized audience continue to stay polarized – prima facie, they still dislike Rahul, they still think he has no chance in any polls – but they are subliminally introduced to the flip side of the coin, which is that Rahul is leading a very successful pad yatra throughout the country. The media manipulation tactics, which were successfully used by BJP through the years – putting money in advertising and wooing mainstream anchors to vocalize their support of the party, are now being countered by Rahul and Congress. He is not only trending on Twitter – even news organizations are having to report on him. And that is better than being out of the limelight like he was for several years. He is finally behaving like an Opposition is supposed to behave.

Social media is a strong tool that the ruling party has mastered using, since the boom of the digital age in India. Other parties still struggle with it, and go for either generic media agencies with low political understanding and/or use internal teams with low media knowledge. Leadtech has a dedicated wing to Digital Management, with a primary focus on social media. Contact us today to find out how we can help capture your audiences.

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    Election PR Management

    Bharat Jodo Yatra Enters Rajasthan: Can Congress Hold Power?

    BHARAT JODO YATRA

    There are only two states in the country where Congress is ruling independently, without the support of a coalition partner – Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Although Chhattisgarh, after 15 years of BJP rule, gave the mandate to INC in the last election (2018), Rajasthan has a so-called tennis court arrangement. Since 1998, every term, the party in power changes, andthe other one takes control. Since 1998, only 2 people, Ashok Gehlot and Vasundhra Raje, have served as the Chief Minister, on and off. What’s more – it’s a well known fact among political circles that these two opposing forces are actually friends.

    While Congress suffered in multiple states since their loss in Lok Sabha beginning 2014, Rajasthan was one of the few states that they won in, and didn’t lose out to political crises like in MP and Karnataka. It certainly wasn’t due to Gehlot’s good governance – his present term has been full of controversies and scandals. Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s speech in September earlier this year highlighted some of the broken promises – the collapse of law and order, high VAT and power tariffs, unemployment, and many more.

    Some allege that Vasundhra Raje is the reason why Gehlot is still in power. It is no secret that Raje has been sidelined from Rajasthan politics almost altogether. She has served two full terms, with many successful schemes, but due to her differences with the BJP high command, Amit Shah in particular, she is no longer involved in the state. She holds no posts – Satish Poonia is the state party president and former state minister Gulab Chand Kataria is the Leader of Opposition despite having a former CM in the assembly. She has the ceremonial post of National Vice President, but no control in her home state. It is not far-fetched for the public to assume that after being denied opportunities, Raje would work against the party, or at least, not find motivation to help the party.

    Despite Raje’s present position, and her potential to prevent BJP forming government next year when Rajasthan goes to the polls, BJP is not in crisis-mode yet. There is no lack of influential leaders from the state. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, for instance, is a gold-medal candidate for the Chief Minister. Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, the MP from Jodhpur, also is favored by Modi-Shah, even though his influence is mainly restricted to Western Rajasthan. There are many underdogs who are also vying for the seat, but the decision “will be up to the party”, they
    all claim.

    Despite Raje’s present position, and her potential to prevent BJP forming government next year when Rajasthan goes to the polls, BJP is not in crisis-mode yet. There is no lack of influential leaders from the state. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, for instance, is a gold-medal candidate for the Chief Minister. Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, the MP from Jodhpur, also is favored by Modi-Shah, even though his influence is mainly restricted to Western Rajasthan. There are many underdogs who are also vying for the seat, but the decision “will be up to the party”, they all claim.

    On the first glance, one may assess Congress’s position in the state as strong, but the party has its own complications. For starters, the CM face for the party is still dubious. 3 term incumbent Ashok Gehlot seems like the more natural choice, but Sachin Pilot has been aiming for the seat for a long time. Even though Gehlot gave up the Congress presidential post to safeguard his position in the state, it would be interesting to see who Mallikarjun Kharge would pick for the face next year. If at all they decide to go with Pilot, a begrudged Gehlot might work Raje-style and help Congress lose. Besides leadership, Congress also has the problem of caste-based vote consolidation – a strategy BJP is a master of, but Congress lately seems to have lost an understanding of. Ultimately, it will depend upon the on-ground work both parties undertake.

    LEADTECH has been a pioneer in Election Management since its inception in 2008. From assisting individual candidates in their constituencies to whole parties in over 20 states, LEADTECH has focused on improving leadership with the help of technology. Contact us to find more information about our past work and how we can help you win in your constituency next year.

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      Categories
      Election 2022 Political research

      10 Quick Facts About Gujarat Elections Campaign

      1. Gujarat Vidhan Sabha is the unicameral legislature of the state of Gujarat, with 182 seats.
      2. Post independence, the area of Gujarat came under 3 states – Bombay, Saurashtra, and Kutch. Gujarat, as a state, was formed in 1962.
      3. From 1962 to 1995, INC had varying levels of success in this assembly, forming the government on numerous occasions.
      4. Their main opposition during this period kept changing, from Swatantra Party (liberalism) to INC (O) (a faction of Congress).
      5. INC lost in 1975 due to a strong opposition presence – most of which banded together to form a short-lived coalition government. However, in the 1980s, they revived themselves using the KHAM formula, and won 149 out of 182 seats – the highest majority in Gujarat’s history.
      6. However, since the late 80s, BJP began rising on the national front, especially in Gujarat, which serves as the home state for the party. In 1990, BJP could form a coalition government with Janata Dal, but the coalition broke in less than 8 months, and INC became the coalition partner.
      7. Since 1995, Gujarat has been a BJP bastion. BJP has won here consecutively for 6 terms.
      8. However, in the initial years of BJP dominance, from 1995 to 2001, due to infighting and defections, Gujarat saw 4 different Chief Ministers from 2 different parties. In the first term, BJP lost the majority in the assembly and RJP formed the government. In the second term, BJP maintained its majority but the then-incumbent CM Keshubhai Patel resigned due to ill-health, paving the way for Narendra Modi. Post that, BJP has been consistently strong.
      9. Likewise, the party’s vote share was in the 42% to 45% range during its initial years, but jumped to the 48% to 50% range during the Modi era (which lasted almost 13 years, until 2014 when Modi took over as PM). In the past 8 years, Gujarat has seen 3 new CM faces, including the state’s first female CM.
      10. However, despite a consistently high vote share, BJP’s seats have decreased progressively, from 127 seats in 2002 to 99 seats in 2017. INC is again emerging as a strong opposition face, witnessing an increase of 26 seats in the same period, mainly due to the evolution of the KHAM formula into the KHAMP formula.

      Gujarat Elections Campaign 2022

      Gujarat’s political future is uncertain, as the main opposition party, INC, is growing stronger. New parties like AAP are also trying to elbow their way into Gujarat politics, which may split the votes in future. The results of the upcoming 2022 Gujarat Election Campaign may surprise India.

      LEADTECH has worked in 8 constituencies in the 2007, 2012, and 2017 Gujarat Legislative Assembly elections, and 2 constituencies in the 2014 and 2019 General elections in Gujarat. Leadtech is a non-partisan political consultancy, with clients from all social and political backgrounds. Over 85% of our projects have been fully successful, in which our clients win the elections by large margins. The others have witnessed a large upswing in vote shares, which resulted in close bipolar contests, even if not a win.