India, known as the world’s biggest democracy, recently held its biggest event – the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. These elections were like a thrilling movie with lots of unexpected twists and turns. On June 4th, 2024, everyone eagerly waited, glued to their seats, to see what would happen next.
543 Seats up for Grabs in Lok Sabha
There were 543 seats up for grabs in the Lok Sabha, where the people of India directly chose their leaders. The ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) won the most seats, getting 240 in total. But they didn’t have an easy time winning. The Indian National Congress (INC), which has been around for a long time, also did well. They won 99 seats and became the main opposition party again. This was a big deal for them and showed that they still have a strong presence in Indian politics.
Different regions of India also had their own winners. In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party (SP) won 37 seats, while in West Bengal, the All India Trinamul Congress (TMC) won 29 seats. The Janata Dal (United) got 12 seats in Bihar, and the Shiv Sena (UBT) in Maharashtra also won 9 seats.
Regional Dynamics and Diverse Political Representation in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections
In South the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh got 16 seats, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) won 22 seats in Tamil Nadu showing their popularity in the region. Even smaller parties like the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Left parties like CPI(M), CPI, and CPI(ML) Liberation got 5,4,2,2 seats respectively, adding to the diversity of voices in the Lok Sabha.
When all the votes were counted, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) got the most seats overall, with 293 in total, INDIA is at 232 seats and Others in 18 seats. But in Indian politics, things can change quickly, so nothing is set in stone.
Now, everyone is waiting to see what will happen next on June 8th when the new government will be formed. The drama of Indian politics is far from over, and we’ll have to wait and see what twists and turns lie ahead. But one thing is for sure – democracy in India is strong and will continue to thrive, driven by the voices of its people.
As the second phase of the Indian general election approaches, all eyes are on Barmer Lok Sabha constituency, where the youngest MLA of Rajasthan, 26-year-old Ravindra Singh Bhati, has entered the fray as an independent candidate. Ravindra Singh Bhati’s candidacy, from Barmer PC has garnered significant attention, making the electoral contest in the region even more compelling.
Who is Ravindra Singh Bhati?
Hailing from a non-political background, Ravindra Bhati has emerged as a notable figure in Rajasthan’s political landscape. At just 26 years old, he made history as the youngest MLA in the Rajasthan assembly after winning the 2023 assembly election from the Sheo assembly constituency. Defying the odds and facing formidable opponents like Fateh Khan, Ameen Khan, and Swaroop Singh Khara, Bhati’s victory marked a significant milestone as a first-generation politician.
Bhati’s charismatic presence and ability to draw crowds of thousands with his famous rallying cry, “Laatha rahiya” (stay strong), have earned him comparisons to stalwart politicians like Sachin Pilot and Prime Minister Modi. His knack for connecting with the masses underscores his growing influence and appeal among voters across Rajasthan.
Despite his rapid rise in politics, Bhati remains grounded in his roots. His father, Shaitan Singh Bhati, serves as a school teacher, while his mother, Ashok Kanwar, is a dedicated homemaker. Their humble background reflects Bhati’s commitment to serving his community and advocating for the issues that matter most to the people of Rajasthan.
As Ravindra Singh Bhati continues to chart his political path, his journey exemplifies the power of determination, grassroots support, and the potential for change that resonates deeply with the people he represents.
Student Politics:
Ravindra Singh Bhati’s candidacy in the upcoming election isn’t his first venture into independent politics. During his college years at Jai Narain Vyas University (JNVU), Jodhpur, Bhati was an active member of the ABVP and delved into student politics. His journey began when he sought a ticket for the college presidency from the ABVP. However, when the organization denied him the ticket, Bhati decided to contest independently. His bold move paid off as he clinched victory, becoming the inaugural independent student union president in JNVU’s 57-year history.
Bhati’s fame doubled due to his unwavering advocacy for student rights. He fearlessly led protests and even faced imprisonment for his staunch stance against stakeholders infringing upon students’ rights, whether it was addressing fee issues or navigating the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic. Throughout, Bhati remained actively engaged on the ground, rallying support and building his team across the state.
Now, as he steps onto the broader political stage, Ravindra Singh Bhati’s journey from student activism to a candidate in the Barmer Lok Sabha constituency underscores his commitment to grassroots issues and his ability to mobilize support for change.
2023 Assembly Election:
Sheo AC is dominated by the Rajputs and Muslim communities, while the SC community stands third.
● INC: The electoral landscape was marked by a tense contest between Ameen Khan, the INC MLA, and Fateh Khan, an independent candidate and former district president of the Indian National Congress, both representing the Muslim community’s interests.
Fateh Khan’s decision to contest independently stemmed from the INC’s choice to field Ameen Khan again, leaving many in the Muslim community torn between the two candidates. This split in Muslim votes created uncertainty among voters about whom to support, intensifying the electoral competition in Sheo AC.
As Fateh and Ameen Khan vied for support within the Muslim community, the dynamics of the election highlighted the complexities of local politics and the challenges of navigating competing interests.
● BJP: Ravindra Bhati’s political journey has been marked by his affiliations with organizations like the RSS and ABVP, indicating his ideological leanings towards the BJP. Prior to the 2023 assembly elections in Rajasthan, Bhati publicly acknowledged his alignment with the BJP. Anticipating a ticket from the party, he formally joined the BJP ranks. However, his hopes were dashed when the BJP instead chose Swaroop Singh Khara, then the district president of Barmer, as its candidate for the Sheo assembly constituency.
Feeling betrayed by the party’s decision despite his allegiance, Bhati swiftly resigned from the BJP just a week after joining and decided to contest the election independently. This move sparked rumors among locals and supporters, with some speculating that influential figures like Gajendra Singh Shekawat might have played a role in denying Bhati a ticket to prevent him from potentially overshadowing their leadership in the region.
Despite the hurdles and challenges, Bhati remained undeterred and entered the electoral fray as an independent candidate. In a closely contested battle, he emerged victorious, securing the seat against tough competition from another independent leader, Fateh Khan, with a narrow margin of approximately 4,000 votes.
2024 Lok Sabha Election:
The 2024 Lok Sabha election in Barmer is shaping up to be fiercely contested, with the emergence of Ravindra Singh Bhati as a key player shaking up the political landscape. Both the BJP and INC are facing formidable challenges, largely due to Bhati’s disruptive presence, which has kept their star campaigners on edge.
Bhati’s potential to sway the Rajput community away from the BJP, traditionally seen as its loyal vote bank, adds another layer of complexity to the electoral dynamics. The Rajput community’s discontent with the BJP’s political strategies has become increasingly evident through protests and agitation, signaling a significant shift in their allegiance.
In the 2024 election, Bhati is fighting against the BJP’s Kailash Choudhary and Congress’ Umeda Ram Beniwal, both representing the influential Jat community, a crucial vote bank in Barmer. Local observers anticipate a split in the Jat vote between the two parties, potentially creating an opening for Bhati to secure victory once again as an independent candidate.
Bhati’s appeal transcends his Rajput roots, with supporters hailing him as a leader representing the interests of the “36-kom” or “36-communities.” His ability to unite diverse groups under a common banner underscores his broad-based support and grassroots appeal.
The electoral contest in Barmer has become triangular, with Bhati challenging Union Minister Kailash Choudhary from the BJP and Ummeda Ram from the Congress, who recently joined the party after leaving the RLP.
As the election approaches, the dynamics of Barmer’s political landscape continue to evolve, with Bhati’s candidacy injecting a fresh sense of unpredictability into the race.
Analytical Prediction:
According to Leadtech’s analysis, the independent candidate Ravindra is projected to win the 2024 election with approximately ~45% of the vote share. Following closely behind, the INC’s candidate Ummeda Ram is expected to secure around ~30% of the vote share, while the BJP’s candidate, Kailash Choudhary, is forecasted to come in third with approximately ~20% of the vote share.
In conclusion, Ravindra Singh Bhati’s meteoric rise from student activism to becoming the youngest MLA in Rajasthan and now a formidable independent candidate in the Barmer Lok Sabha election reflects the changing dynamics of Indian politics. His ability to mobilize diverse communities and challenge established party lines has injected unprecedented excitement and unpredictability into the electoral contest. As the 2024 Lok Sabha election approaches, all eyes are on Barmer, where Bhati’s candidacy promises to reshape the region’s political landscape. With analytical predictions favoring his victory, Bhati’s journey exemplifies the power of grassroots support and the potential for change in India’s largest state.
India, one of the biggest democracies in the world, faces its test of democracy every year in the form of elections. The election season is the time when citizens, decide the future of the state in particular and the country as a whole. Elections resemble a delicate chess game, where a single moment of oversight can result in defeat. Politicians avoid the risk of any lapse, as even a minute can sway the outcome. The long exercise of elections includes various dynamics and there are different stakeholders that successfully execute this comprehensive exercise. One of the crucial dynamics, of the elections is a political consultancy and a key role played by political consultants. Political consultancy is the process, in which a leader is advised on various aspects which include, election and campaign management, strategizing the pathways, and gauging the pulse of the constituency in order to win the elections. Each above-mentioned aspect is systematically carried out through proper planning and tools. Data analysis, Public Relations strategy for the candidate, management of outreach, survey, policy guidance, opinion poll and constituency study of the electorate are some of the fundamentals of political consultancy. These all-skill sets are executed by political consultants.
Individuals who are socially conscious, politically engaged, and possess in-depth political knowledge often find a comfortable niche in political consultancy. This allows them to showcase their expertise through avenues such as grassroots intelligence, data administration, social media management, digital communication, and technology integration. They demonstrate a proactive and strategic working style. Political consultancy serves as a neutral ground where people from diverse backgrounds converge, contributing their skills to various spheres. In recent times, we have observed a surge in young minds adopting distinctive techniques and methodical approaches within this career path. This manifests a unique blend of fresh perspectives, technological acumen and dynamic and forward-thinking.
To win an election, the need to go to the roots is important, helping the candidates, know the pulse of their constituency, the visit to each door, of each booth of the constituency, all this helps to make a detailed study about the constituency, understanding of the caste profile, voting behaviour, and the political wave in the constituency. The in-depth research and analysis build a foundation for the leaders to project themselves in the constituency, resonate with the political nerves of the masses, build a narrative around the issues pertaining to the constituency, and perception about his/her leadership that turns his/her popularity into votes.
This consultancy, to the leaders, helps them to understand their constituency, voters and dynamics of the area, which translates into his/her promises, policy formulations, and agenda setting for the constituency. The political consultant creates an impactful campaign, that spreads across the small gaps of the constituency in a uniform manner. Effective communication is one of the core exercises of the elections. Consultants in coordination with leaders craft a well-planned communication strategy, that will totally reflect a voter’s voice. Further, this creates a manifesto, that is voter centric. Here the in-depth and comprehensive survey, research and analysis make a constituency-driven manifesto, effective communication and management.
In this tech world, even the space of politics is not left untouched, the blend of technology and political consultancy has given rise to new and unique perspectives and developments. For example, we at Leadtech provide a top-class tech blended political consultancy to our client, which has helped us to be in this industry for more than a decade. Through tech support, there is ease and coverage of the constituencies and nuanced details of the voters and constituency at the fingertips. With the era of new technologies, politicians are leveraging these technologies to learn about people’s expectations, vision, needs, demands, and hopes. Through AI, Chatbots, and social media, all these technological interventions have made the field of political consultancy very much unique and advanced. The technological wrapping around the political consultancy makes it a more strong and structured space for Indian elections.
Hence, political consultancy, an area, that is growing rapidly in India, is becoming a new space wherein, through consultancy the elections are more enhanced, won on more concrete and genuine issues, narratives and promises rather than on old practices of money and muscle power play. By bringing new innovations, structures, systems and technology to the space of Indian elections, it also generates substantial employment based on individuals’ capabilities and interests. Bringing together the scattered pieces of the constituency through political consultancy is the approach that was much needed for the Indian political landscape.
The tenure of Uttarakhand’s CM has been in turmoil since the day state was formed. We have witnessed that hardly any CM has completed his full tenure without being faced either internal rivalry or anti-incumbency. Uneven developments in the state, hill vs plain divide, caste equation and above all leader’s personal relation with central high command (Delhi), etc. being considered for political instability. As many political pundits observed that the exit of two BJP chief Ministers i.e. Trivendra Singh Rawat and Tirath Singh Rawat was not just a constitutional crisis. Let’s go into the deeper analysis of political developments that have increased political instability in the state.
Trivendra Singh Rawat (18th March 2017 to 10th March 2021):
He remained in the office for 3 years and 357 days. Many political observers have cited various reasons for the resignation of Trivdendra Singh Rawat such as (a) his due to distance relationship with BJP central leadership i.e. Modi-Shah, (b) Putting restriction in the organization of Kumbh Mela, (c) Over-dependence on Bureaucracy, (d) Internal rivalry within BJP and lack of expansion of the cabinet, etc.
In order to unite all factions, BJP high command appointed Madan Kaushik as Uttarakhand Chief and asked him to assess the ground reality. Meanwhile ignoring the fact that Tirath Singh Rawat was not a leader of masses being elevated to the post of CM due to his close relationship with Bhagat Singh Koshyari, a committed RSS pracharak and current governor of the state of Maharashtra. While neglecting Anil Baluni and Dhan Singh Rawat, both are close to RSS and enjoy goodwill in central leadership as well.
Tirath Singh Rawat (10th March 2021 to 4th July 2021):
After becoming the CM, Tirath Singh Rawat reversed many vital decisions of his predecessor Mr. Trivendra Singh Rawat such as (a) Organizing Kumbh Mela in the midst of covid-19 and putting people’s lives in danger, (b) Commitment to disband Char Dham Devasthanam Board (c) Putting on hold of creation of commissioner ate at Gairsain (d) Questioning women/girls who were wearing ripped jeans, etc.
Below we have highlighted two issues that triggered the politics of Uttarakhand as if
Kumbh Mela the super spreader of Covid-19 second waves:
Kumbh Mela means a lot to Sanatanies and to Hindus and so as the responsibility. The responsibility bearer should make clear and strict decisions and address the guidelines to the public of the State and the people who will visit the Mela from other States. Rather than this, he (Mr. Tirath Singh Rawat) took the decision to remove the requirement of the Covid test. He further said, “Kumbh happens only after 12 years. Therefore, we do not want people to miss on the opportunities of experiencing the festivals”. So, this left him surrounded by controversies, and courting the controversies over the fake RT-PCR test during the Kumbh Mela and mismanagement of the issue had also affected his goodwill.
Opening of tourism Sector:
To boost the tourism sector, the hotelier requested the former CM to remove the restriction of RT-PCR in tourists and allow hotels to operate 50%-75% occupancy. Just to boost the tourism sector during Covid-19, when the corona was at its peak, it obviously questions the government whether they were putting the entire state at stake just to boost the tourism sector.
Is BJP indirectly trying to target the Mamta Banerjee?
On the 3rd of July, 2021 in front of the Union Minister Mr. Narendra Singh Tomar and other BJP leaders a new CM will be assigned to the State, since Mr. Tirath Singh Rawat filed the resignation within 4 months of minister ship of the State. For this reason he could not handle the situation of the state, which lead the state to instability. “Target is not Tirath Singh Rawat but Mamata Banerjee. Tirath Singh was the sacrificed goat who had been sacrificed to ensure that Mamta did not get elected. The way she has challenged the prime minister. We all know the PM does not accept any challenges. We have seen what happened to L K Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi” said Congress MLA and deputy leader of the opposition Karana Mahra in an interview.
Let’s have a look at legal provisions:
As per article 164 (4) of the Constitution, “a Minister who for any period of six consecutive months is not a member of the Legislature of the State shall at the expiration of that period cease to be a Minister. Further, Section 151 (A)of Representation of People Act 1951 says that by-elections to be held for Parliament or State Legislature for a vacant seats within 6 months. If we read Section 151 (A) with Article 164 (4) then it lays down two conditions: (I) if the period of the vacant seat is less than a year then there is no need to conduct by-election (II) if the Election Commission of India in the consultation with Central Government certifies that it is difficult to held by-election within the stipulated time period.
Therefore the central authority of the BJP has not willing to support of by-election in the state of Uttarakhand that resulted in resignation of Tirath Singh Rawat. Many political pundits said that it might affect Mamata Banerjee’s CM candidature as well.
In case of Unicameral Legislature:
Unlike Maharashtra both Uttarakhand, as well as West Bengal, have a unicameral legislature means one house i.e. State legislative assembly. In the bicameral legislature, as it happened in the state of Maharashtra, where after having lots of political tension between the Governor, Shiv Sena, and BJP, Mr. Uddhav Thakarey was nominated from the state legislative council. But in the case of West Bengal, the situation is different and that’s why all political pundits keep a bird’s eye view on 5th November.
Supreme Court in SR Chaudhary vs State of Punjab in 2001 clearly ruled out that a person cannot become a minister or a chief minister again after the expiry of 6 months if he is not elected. Upon asking about the recent constitutional crisis in the state of West Bengal and Uttarakhand and to disallow a by-election, the former president of Supreme Court Bar Association Dudhyant Dave said, “I don’t think this argument will hold water before the law court. Elections were held in Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry at the height of the pandemic. How can they stop this now? The court will not permit it”. Lastly, much depend on the newly appointed chief election commissioner that how he would assess the ground situation, and whether he allows to conduct the election or not.
The 2008 Karnataka Legislative Assembly Election served as Bhartiya Janata Party’s gateway to southern India where, for the first time, the party formed government despite not winning a clear majority. Since then, the party has effectively consolidated a dedicated voter base in most of the adjoining states with the exception of Kerala where the Left Democratic Front and the Congress party have managed retained power.
One of the prime reasons behind the saffron surge down south is the dwindling hold of regional parties over traditionally held constituencies. Parties like AIADMK, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Telugu Desam Party, Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party, and Janata Dal (Secular), which have long enjoyed cultural support in certain states owing to family fiefdoms, have been unable to sustain themselves over the years. This coupled with a unified awakening of Hindu consciousness in the southern region has sidelined party dynasties that have ruled Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh for decades. Additionally, with a politically disintegrating Congress party, voters now look over to the BJP for economic growth and stability. The Bhartiya Janata Party has also, through the course of several election cycles, formed strategic alliances to come to power. An example of the same being the JDS-BJP alliance in the state of Karnataka.
Tracing the BJP’s trajectory in Kerala, the party has managed to establish a presence over the years. The Bhartiya Janata Party has substantially increased its vote share from 6.03% in the 2011 Legislative Assembly to 14.96% in the 2016 State Election. Keeping in line with its progress, the party won 15% of the votes in Kerala’s 2020 Civic Body Election. While it has not been able to form government in Kerala so far, the BJP is projected to win a substantial vote share in the upcoming election. Similarly, the party has been unable to win a single seat in the Union Territory of Puducherry, since its vote share has only gone up to 2.4%. The nominations of three MLAs from the Bhartiya Janata Party by the Centre in 2018 to the assembly sparked controversy which was quickly dispersed by the Madras High Court by upholding the Centre’s action. The party is expected to form a coalition with AIADMK in the upcoming election.
With the exception of Kerala and Puducherry, the BJP has practically taken over the southern states, projecting a unified front against politically endorsed regionalism which has served local parties for decades. The party’s stellar performance in the newly formed state of Telangana at the assembly and municipal level is a testament to their growing influence in South. Although the BJP’s seat share in Andhra Pradesh has dropped from 4 to none, the party has been able to establish a vote bank in the state given their strategic alliances with the existing regional parties. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the party has been observing a steady rise in popularity given their promises of fast paced economic development. While the Bhartiya Janata Party has not been able to solidify power in the southern states, it is in the process of doing so as a part of its expansionist agenda. The party attempts to unite a fragmented South under the banner of Hinduism and economic development.
In an attempt to stir the political conscience of West Bengal, the All-India Trinamool Congress used the anti-industrial sentiments of the population as a campaigning tool in 2011. A decade later, the party’s aversion to fast-paced industrialization has landed it in murky waters. With the advent of formidable opposition, the 2021 West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election has proven to be diverse in terms of participation and campaigning issues, ahead of polling.
The major parties contesting election in 2021 include the All-India Trinamool Congress (Federal Front), the Indian National Congress along with Communist Party of India – Marxist (Mahajot) and the Bharatiya Janata Party. The Trinamool Congress has retained its approach of rolling out mass distributive and other policies right before election season. With policies like Swyastha Sathi, a healthcare initiative, and Duare Sarkarand, the party hopes to retain its voter base. Party leadership has also made use of the ‘othering’ approach to draw distinction between the BJP, a predominantly Hindu party, and homegrown TMC. The party has also sparing used the Citizenship Amendment Act to attack the BJP.
BJP alleges that the Trinamool Congress lacks vision for the state. The party promises more rapid industrialization and economic development in the state if voted to power. Additionally, the Bharatiya Janata Party has also employed use of phrases such as “Ebar Bangla, parle shamla” (Save Bengal this time) hinting at Mamata Banerjee’s strategy of minority appeasement and lack of good economic governance. The opposition, including the INC and CPI (M) along with the BJP have severely criticized Banerjee’s use of political violence to retain voter support.
In 2016 Legislative Assembly Election the primary campaigning issues used by the opposition were the Narada and Saradha scandals, lack of industrialization, and flaming of political violence by TMC. However, the party responded by introducing mass distributive schemes of grains and pulses for the poor and by restoring infrastructure across the state. Millions of minority students were handed out scholarships and the Muslim community was registered under the OBC category.
While political strategies change with every election cycle, their nature remains stagnant. Parties pick on each other’s shortcomings to secure their own vote bank. However, instances of violence close to elections have become more predominant in West Bengal with no solution in sight.
With the advent of digital media, the nature of political campaigning has changed over the years. Digital campaigning, at a national level, was first introduced by the Bharatiya Janata Party in the 2009 Lok Sabha Election. The 2014 Lok Sabha Election was a testament to the same where the BJP, with its dedicated social media campaigning, took the country by storm. Since then parties across the country have been drifting away from more traditional structures of reaching out to their audience and have started embracing digital campaigning.
Interactive Voice Response (IVR) has emerged as an effective tool to gather public opinion towards candidates. IVRs engage with voters through automated outbound calls and voters register their opinions by merely pressing a button on their phone. Additionally, bulk messages or blast messages also help candidates reach out to a wide audience and keep in touch with them. It is a one-way communicative channel that makes one-to-one communication easier. Furthermore, with a huge chunk of the population making use of WhatsApp, it also has come up as a platform for engagement by candidates through forwarded messages.
The most crucial element to digital campaigning is collating a specialized media team. The team creates content and engages with people for the candidate. Fundamentally, social media campaigns, across platforms, should appeal to a wide demographic. However, since most candidates have a target audience based on the nature of their policies, specialized ads for a targeted audience on certain social media platforms should also be a priority. Another important aspect of digital campaigning is personal engagement. This personal engagement, through live videos or tweets, should ideally be of positive nature with personal anecdotes.
It is also important for the campaign team to be consistent with their posting, whether it is on social media or a website made for the campaign. The goal of leaving an impact on people can be achieved by churning more graphic content with images, slogans, party/candidate symbols, colors, etc. in lieu of written content.
Hence, digital campaigning can help candidates reach out to a wider audience if used strategically. It is an attractive campaigning field since a lot of everyday discourse happens on the internet. Candidates can expand their voter base with the help of impactful targeted ad campaigns and change the course of the election.
The 2008 Karnataka Legislative Assembly Election served as Bhartiya Janata Party’s gateway to southern India where, for the first time, the party formed government despite not winning a clear majority. Since then, the party has effectively consolidated a dedicated voter base in most of the adjoining states with the exception of Kerala where the Left Democratic Front and the Congress party have managed retained power.
