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Election 2022 Political research

6 Reasons Congress May Stay in Opposition for the Next Decade

Congress

CongressCongress was the dominant party in India post independence. For the first 25 years, they ruled without strong opposition. From the 1970s to 1990s, INC often lost power, but they always managed to come back. They were indisputable winners – with secure vote banks in every nook and corner of the country. But post 2014, their situation has only been described as “dismal”. BJP’s dominance at the Center has virtually eliminated INC from its original position. But is it all due to the BJP? Let’s explore –

  1. Leadership – The high command bodies of Congress (eg. Working Committee) are generally headed by Gandhi family members. Many members have never even contested elections, like Ambika Soni.
  2. Organizational Structure – INC has a lot of leaders, but none of them are organized. Each of them acts on their own, which is detrimental to the party. In-party dissatisfaction, voiced mainly by the G23, also makes the party look weak.
  3. History – INC has a long history of corruption, nepotism, and fascism – the shadow of which it still can’t escape.
  4. Defection – Party seniors, who have been associated with the party for a long time, are now beginning to leave the party since they no longer see benefit in this association. Another major reason for defection is lack of rewards – Jyotiraditya Scindia left because INC refused to make him the CM of MP.
  5. Narrative – INC’s media team is probably their biggest drawback. Their public narrative, explaining their consecutive defeats across states, is always that their message never reached the audience in the way they had intended. INC is also unable to control the media storm about Nehru, or bank upon their involvement with the independence movement. Congress still hasn’t changed their media structure.
  6. Behavior – INC has even begun behaving like the Opposition. Their stances are pro-minorities to distinguish themselves from BJP, but minorities are firstly not enough to win, and secondly, even these minorities aren’t totally polarized in their favor.

INC is a stubborn party with a weak foundation. Their decline is not only due to BJP, but their own cons – the range of which includes the aforementioned. Even with a strategist like Prashant Kishor on board, they are unlikely to gain back their position in the country.

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Election 2022 Political research

10 Quick Facts About Gujarat Elections Campaign

Vidhan Sabha

  1. Gujarat Vidhan Sabha is the unicameral legislature of the state of Gujarat, with 182 seats.
  2. Post independence, the area of Gujarat came under 3 states – Bombay, Saurashtra, and Kutch. Gujarat, as a state, was formed in 1962.
  3. From 1962 to 1995, INC had varying levels of success in this assembly, forming the government on numerous occasions.
  4. Their main opposition during this period kept changing, from Swatantra Party (liberalism) to INC (O) (a faction of Congress).
  5. INC lost in 1975 due to a strong opposition presence – most of which banded together to form a short-lived coalition government. However, in the 1980s, they revived themselves using the KHAM formula, and won 149 out of 182 seats – the highest majority in Gujarat’s history.
  6. However, since the late 80s, BJP began rising on the national front, especially in Gujarat, which serves as the home state for the party. In 1990, BJP could form a coalition government with Janata Dal, but the coalition broke in less than 8 months, and INC became the coalition partner.
  7. Since 1995, Gujarat has been a BJP bastion. BJP has won here consecutively for 6 terms.
  8. However, in the initial years of BJP dominance, from 1995 to 2001, due to infighting and defections, Gujarat saw 4 different Chief Ministers from 2 different parties. In the first term, BJP lost the majority in the assembly and RJP formed the government. In the second term, BJP maintained its majority but the then-incumbent CM Keshubhai Patel resigned due to ill-health, paving the way for Narendra Modi. Post that, BJP has been consistently strong.
  9. Likewise, the party’s vote share was in the 42% to 45% range during its initial years, but jumped to the 48% to 50% range during the Modi era (which lasted almost 13 years, until 2014 when Modi took over as PM). In the past 8 years, Gujarat has seen 3 new CM faces, including the state’s first female CM.
  10. However, despite a consistently high vote share, BJP’s seats have decreased progressively, from 127 seats in 2002 to 99 seats in 2017. INC is again emerging as a strong opposition face, witnessing an increase of 26 seats in the same period, mainly due to the evolution of the KHAM formula into the KHAMP formula.

Gujarat Elections Campaign 2022

Gujarat’s political future is uncertain, as the main opposition party, INC, is growing stronger. New parties like AAP are also trying to elbow their way into Gujarat politics, which may split the votes in future. The results of the upcoming 2022 Gujarat Election Campaign may surprise India.

LEADTECH has worked in 8 constituencies in the 2007, 2012, and 2017 Gujarat Legislative Assembly elections, and 2 constituencies in the 2014 and 2019 General elections in Gujarat. Leadtech is a non-partisan political consultancy, with clients from all social and political backgrounds. Over 85% of our projects have been fully successful, in which our clients win the elections by large margins. The others have witnessed a large upswing in vote shares, which resulted in close bipolar contests, even if not a win.

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Election 2022 Election PR Management Political research

Can Congress Win Gujarat Assembly Election 2022?

cong flag

Indian National Congress had a stronghold over the state assembly of Gujarat since its inception in 1962, which was occasionally threatened by short-lived opposition. However, since 1995, BJP has become dominant in the state by breaking the INC winning streak.

INC had several reasons for its win. Initially, INC banked upon its historical involvement in India’s independence and its commitment to modern India’s development. They did not face stiff competition from any of the opposition parties over the years. The opposition had strongholds only over certain communities, for example, Swatantra Party was strong among rich and middle class peasants, but even these communities were not completely alienated from the INC.

In 1974, following the Nav Nirman movement, the then-incumbent Congress CM, Chimanbhai Patel had to resign. This led to a period of President’s rule, following which fresh elections were held. In 1975 elections, INC emerged as the single-largest party, but couldn’t form the government, since all the opposition parties came together. But this was followed by the National Emergency, and within a year, the dissolution of the state government. INC briefly came to power again, but it was short lived.

The 1980s saw a massive revival of the Congress, mainly due to the KHAM formula. KHAM, which stands for Kshatriyas (including Kolis), Harijans, Adivasis, and Muslims, formed the major vote bank of INC. This caste equation appealed to the already secure voter groups of INC (like SC, ST and Minorities) but also polarized the populous Koli community in INC’s favor, which formed 24% of the population. INC used reservation as a tool to garner votes from these communities. This led to INC winning the largest majority in Gujarat’s legislative history, winning 149 out of 182 seats.

1990 saw a completely different wave, as BJP was gaining prominence nationally. INC won only 33 seats, and JD formed the government in coalition with BJP. However, INC managed to bring back Chimanbhai Patel, and stayed in power. But this lasted only till 1995.

1995 onwards, INC lost its winning streak and was reduced to the status of main opposition. Their vote share has been consistent too – in the 38% to 40% range. However, INC has been  progressively flipping more assembly seats – in 2002, they won 51 seats, but by 2017, they had won 77 seats. This can be credited to Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani, Alpesh Thakor, and Bharatsinh Solanki – who helped evolve the KHAM formula into the KHAMP formula – now inclusive of the Patels – a group previously alienated by INC.

Congress, although historically strong in the state, had lost its majority in the 90s, and could not revive it since then. However, they have a strong formula which could work in their favor, if executed right. We see evidence of this in the 2017 election results – the first time since 1995 when BJP failed to cross 100 seats. In fact, the winning margin of BJP was reduced to just 22 seats in 2017, compared to 54 seats in 2012. INC, being the main opposition, secured most of the remaining seats.

To win, INC firstly needs a credible CM face. In addition to that, they need a strong narrative, which would place them as a better alternative to BJP. They should consider targeting urban areas as well, by expanding the KHAMP formula. They must also beware of AAP, which plans to enter Gujarat politics. Most importantly, if INC wants to win, it needs to target certain assemblies in which it is strong, but loses by slim margins. In these cases, hiring a reliable political consultancy can help them win more seats and secure a majority in the upcoming Gujarat Assembly Elections 2022.

Leadtech is a political advisory firm with 15 years of experience in Gujarat legislative and parliamentary elections. 85% of our clients have won with thumping majorities in their constituencies, and the remaining have seen substantial upswing in their vote share. Contact us now to find out more.

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Election 2022

Download Voter List 2022

Download Voter List 2022

Download Voter List 2022

Political parties and elections play a significant role in the development of a country. With the increase in awareness amongst the citizens, it has become important for the political parties to make well-suited strategies to win the elections.  

But, one challenge the political party can face here is the lack of information about the voters. Having no to minimal detail about the voter can be a constraint in building winning strategies. In this case, you can take the help of the voter list. 

As voter list has information about the potential voters, you can build your strategies around it. Having information related to the voters can help you stay ahead of the opposition. Continue reading about the importance of voter list and how we can help. 

Importance of Voter List

A voter list is the list of people eligible for voting in a constituency. The voter list is updated from time to time through proper research and analysis. Every constituency has its voter lists. It has information about the people who can cast their votes. Also, it is essential and forbids any illegal practice.

Apart from it, the voter list is an essential tool for the political parties in India. It contains all the information, interests, and gender of the voter. Through these details, you can build a winning election strategy. It will also help in the preparation of the manifesto.

How can LEADTECH Help?

download voter list 2022

LEADTECH is a political campaign company in India. We are a leading political consulting company. We can help you to analyze the political insights and make a winning strategy around them. Having been in the business for more than 12 years, we help our clients to achieve their goals and eventually win the elections.  

Our main mission is to provide tension-free services to our clients. Connect with us to download the voter list, for 2021 and 2022.

Purchase and Download Voter list in excel format for Various Indian States

S No.StateS No.State
1

Download voter list 2021

3

Download voter list 2022

2

Download voter list Delhi

4

Download voter list uttar pradesh

If you want to download voter list in excel format, then you must contact us at our contact number. We will provide you updated voter list of each and every constituency.

 

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Election 2022

How have the People of Uttar Pradesh Voted?

HOW HAVE THE PEOPLE OF UTTAR PRADESH VOTED

UP Election 2022

A state in northern India, Uttar Pradesh has always been a significant political state of the country. After the heated stir in Punjab Congress, it will be interesting to watch political leaders’ new marketing tactics in UP Elections, 2022. The major parties contesting in UP elections in 2022 include Bhartiya Janata  Party (BJP), the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and the Congress.

BJP has completed its first term in Uttar Pradesh after it won the previous assembly elections. Many people are looking for AAP’s comeback in the 2022 elections to be conducted in the year 2022. Many people are confused about how the Uttar Pradesh elections will work.

The panchayat elections were seen as a semi-final for the assembly elections as they provided an idea about the ground situation. SP says its supported candidates performed extremely well as people don’t like the current government.

But, the BJP claims it has won more seats than it did in the year 2015. The polls didn’t get contested on party symbols, but candidates represented a political party. 

While the BJP chief minister Yogi Adityanath will project his achievements, the opposition will highlight his shortcomings. They are likely to target the UP government on the mishandled COVID-19, and the BJP is expected to counter the massive decrease in such cases recently.

With the COVID-19 deterioration in the year, all eyes are glued towards the 2022 assembly polls. It’ll be interesting to watch how the ruling party will handle the negative impact because of the ongoing farmer’s protest against the Center’s new agricultural reforms.

While the BJP is sure that it will win more seats than in 2017, the voters tend to disagree because of incompetence during COVID-19.

Will COVID-19 Have an Influence On Assembly Poll Results?

BJP said it can’t get blamed because of the natural phenomenon which prevailed worldwide. However, the opposition states that people didn’t die because of COVID but because the government mismanaged the situation.

The voters of UP have been seen voting for alliances, caste, and religion. So, it’ll be an interesting thing to watch whether people get influenced by COVID-19 or not.

Are all the Parties Prepared for UP Elections 2022?

With not even a year left for the elections, observers say political parties have already started making plans. They have already started to plan the election campaigns. As every contesting party knows the elections will be competitive, they have started preparing agendas to work around and achieve their goals.

What Do the Experts Have to Say?

The experts believe that the BJP government’s image got a bit dented because of the COVID-19 situation. And they also believe that Akhilesh Yadav has the upper hand as people still haven’t forgotten the development work done on his part.

Because of the previous development, Akhilesh has still considered a tough competition for the BJP. His image is strong, and he can certainly be fierce competition in the UP Elections, 2022.

The first UP Assembly election was held in 1951-52, where Congress captured 388 seats.

Past Scenarios about UP Elections

2017: BJP Wins Around 320 Seats in UP 

Even after having the push from Congress, CM Akhilesh Yadav failed to win seats. The powerful political campaign led by the BJP caused hurdles, and ultimately Akhilesh’s cycle got punctured. BJP saw a massive rise in the votes since 2012 and came into power.

2012: UP Gets its Youngest CM- Akhilesh Yadav

Mayawati went to the 2012 UP Elections after completing her tenure as the CM, and she became the first CM to complete her full term. But, UP’s voters weren’t impressed by her and voted her out in the election.

Samajwadi Party came into the picture, and Akhilesh Yadav became the youngest CM of UP. However, he faced quite a backlash but was able to withstand the storm.

2007: Track-Breaking Election

The Uttar Pradesh Assembly election of 2007 was a track breaker election as Mayawati won the elections. She became the first CM to complete her tenure. But, she was voted out by the citizens in 2012.

1989-2007: UP Saw a CM of 48 Hours

VP Singh’s Janata Dal came out as the single largest party in 1989. The government was formed with help from BJP, and Mulayam Singh Yadav (a minister in the Janata government) became the Chief Minister.

A not long time passed when Mandal and Ayodhya took center stage in UP’s politics in elections. The OBC, Dalits, and Muslims were deemed as en-bloc voting communities.

Dalit and OBC got formed in 1993 as BSP’s Mayawati and SP’s Mulayam Singh Yadav came together. The tie-up wasn’t long-lasting. In 1995, Mayawati joined hands with BJP and became the first Dalit Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh.

Years from 1989 to 2007 were unstable were 10 Chief Ministers got a witness and three President’s Rule. Jagdambika Pal only lasted for 48 hours as the CM of UP.

1980-88: Congress Replaced the CMs

Assembly elections were held in 1980 where Congress got 309 out of 425 seats. The Raja of Manda, Vishwanath Pratap Singh, became the Chief Minister. However, Congress didn’t stop its practice and continued replacing the Chief Ministers.

These eight years were full of ups and downs, and Uttar Pradesh saw at least six CMs before VP Singh revolted.

1977-80: Janata Experiment

The Janata Party was able to win more seats because of the anti-Indira Gandhi wave. The Janata Party won the majority in Lok Sabha, and all the state Assemblies were dissolved where Congress was in the majority. 

Fresh elections were held in Uttar Pradesh. The Janata Party got 352 seats out of 425 Assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh. Ram Naresh Yadav became the CM, and the Janata Party found another candidate in Banarasi Das in two years. However, the Janata experiment failed in three years.

Elections were held in 1980 for the Lok Sabha, where Indira Gandhi came into power, and she got the power to dissolve the Janata Party government in the states.

 1970-77: An Uncertain Period

A fresh election was held in 1969. The Congress didn’t make it to the majority by 2 seats. Congress won 211 out of the 425- seat Assembly. Jana Sangh got 49 seats, and Charan Singh’s BKD remained victorious on 98 seats.

In the next 8 years, Uttar Pradesh got to see four sessions of President’s Rule and six Chief Ministers, which included Charan Singh. Charan Singh remained in the office for over nine months.

1967: First Non-Congress CM

The Chief Minister’s Office saw its first change in Uttar Pradesh, where Congress couldn’t win a majority for the first time.

An alliance was formed between Bharatiya Kranti Dal of Jat Leader Charan Singh, Praja Socialist Party, Jana Sangh, CPI(M), Swatantra Party, and the Republican Party of India. A total of 22 Independent MLAs provided support to the alliance. It was here when Charan Singh got on the chair of Chief Minister.

The government of Charan Singh didn’t even rule for one year, and the Assembly got dissolved only after one year of the President’s Rule.

1952-1967: 5 Chief Ministers

UP got 5 Chief ministers in the period from 1952 to 1967. Govind Ballabh Pant became the first CM. After this, Sampuranand became the next CM. The Congress didn’t stop changing its Chief Ministers.

Now, moving forward to more details about the UP Elections which are going to be held in 2022.

UP Elections Prediction 2022

Uttar Pradesh has provided nine prime ministers to India. Most of the experts have predicted an easy win for BJP in the UP Elections, 2022. It is said that the party is expected to win 259 to 267 seats which will be followed by the SP party. Congress was the center of India before the 2014 general elections. Congress suffered a major shock after the 2014 elections.

UP Elections Poll Survey, 2022

Most parties have already formed alliances, and SP and Congress might forge associations with smaller parties to increase their chances to win more constituencies. However, the Mayawati party has been told to go alone and form no associations with other parties so far.

Experts consider that a planned association between SP and Congress can be fruitful for both parties. However, they advise a formal alliance. But, SP has shown its disinterest to align with Congress as the former has only 7 MLAs present in the state. However, people who are searching for an alternative to the BJP are considered to choose Congress or SP.

Many people are looking forward to the approaching UP Elections, 2022. Surveys are being conducted to see the people’s interest. The 2022 elections are considered the turning point for the AAP. People are seeing AAP as a great alternative in Congress-led states after its downfall in Punjab.

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Election News Indian political news

First Dalit Sikh CM of Punjab: Charanjit Singh Channi

Punjab CM

While coping up with the distressing situation over the resignation of Captain Amarinder Singh from the CM seat on Saturday, the new Chief Minister has been appointed for Punjab, on Sunday afternoon. The first-ever Dalit Sikh Chief Minister of Punjab, Mr. Charanjit Singh Channi, also the former Minister of Technical Education and Training will lead Punjab for the next 4 months till the Assembly election 2022.

On Monday i.e. 20th September 2021, CM Charanjit Singh Channi took oath as 16th Chief Minister of Punjab and along with two deputies Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa and Om Prakash Soni, to end this power tussle in INC. He presented Chamkaur legislative assembly thrice in the Rupnagar district. As many political experts say that all is not well in the congress party and the party has divided into groups. Articulating their interests and consolidating them would be a difficult task for the congress party. Time will tell whether the Congress party has learned any lesson from her past mistakes or not, therefore we have to keep a bird’s eye view on all political developments in the state of Punjab.

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Indian political news Political research

INDIA-RUSSIA: Other Step Towards Strong Friendship

INDIA-RUSSIA: Other Step Towards Strong Friendship

A virtual summit of Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) was held on 3rd September 2021. A virtual meeting was attended by the heads of the government of the participating countries. Both PM of India Mr. Narendra Modi and President of Russia Mr. Vladimir Putin interacted with each other. While addressing the session PM of India Mr. Narendra Modi stated that “India-Russia Friendship has stood the test of time by recalling the “robust” collaboration shared between the two countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and including the vaccination programme. 

Key takeaways from the meeting   

  • India’s PM addressed the Plenary Session of Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), and said energy is the another major pillar of strategist partnership between two countries.
  • India and Russia can together help bring stability to the global energy market.
  • Russia’s energy Ministry expects gas supplies via Nord Stream 2 to start in 2021.

Plenary Session:- A plenary session or plenum is a session of a conference which all members of all parties are to attend. Such a session may include a broad range of content, from keywords to panel discussion.

About Eastern Economic Forum (EEF):

  • The 6th Eastern Economic Forum held in Vladivostok in September. 2-4 in Hybrid (combined: online and in person) format.
  • Main topic of business is “New Opportunities for the East in a Changing World”.

It would be interesting to watch how the new business topic will positively impact both of the countries, and how much opportunities will it bring in the East. Since Russia has always positively supported India in terms of growth including energy growth, defense growth and manufacturing sector.

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Election News Political research

Kabul via Qatar: A Diplomatic Talk with Taliban leaders

Kabul via Qatar: A Diplomatic Talk with Taliban leaders

India’s ambassador to Qatar held the first formal conversation with a top Taliban leader on 31st August, the Indian foreign ministry said, the first formal work towards peace between India-Taliban since the hard-line Islamist group took over Afghanistan.

The Indian delegate, Deepak Mittal, met Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, the head of the Taliban’s Political Office in Doha, at the request of the Taliban, the foreign ministry said.

The major concerns of India were proposed by Deepak Mittal in Taliban’s Political Office at Doha as follows

  • Major concerns of the Indian Government focused on safety, security, and early return of Indian nationals stranded in Afghanistan. This led to the hope of Minorities who wished to visit India also came up.

  • Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) further issued the statement by adding, that Mr. Mittal confronts the major concern of the Indian Government is that Afghanistan’s soil should not be used for anti-Indian activities and terrorism in any manner”.

Kabul via Qatar

  • About 140 Indians and members of the Sikh minority are still stuck in Kabul and need to be brought back. India has evacuated 565 people, including 112 Afghan citizens to Delhi. If we compare the number of people India evacuated is much lower than other countries like the US, they have evacuated 1,22,000 people including 1,00,000 or more Afghan citizens.

  • Owing to the severity of the geopolitical developments taking place in Afghanistan, the government of Indian had no option except to immediately shut down the embassy which resulted in cut off all services, severely affected the Indian diaspora living in Afghanistan as well as other minority communities. Therefore safe evacuation of Indian citizens as well as helping Afghan people is the utmost priority before the Indian diplomatic community.

According to the MEA statement, the Taliban leader assured the Indian Ambassador that all the issues would be “positively addressed”. Mr. Stanekzai made a statement on Saturday calling for India to continue its political and trade ties with Afghanistan, and pursue connectivity projects. Despite being assurance given by Taliban leaders, the Indian diplomatic community must keep their bird’s eye view on developments taking place in Afghanistan and also watch how the superpower will react to this. Many senior-most diplomates saying that regime change in Afghanistan will have deep-rooted geopolitical implications in South Asian Countries including India(as being a major power in South Asia).Therefore, India must go ahead in a very calculated manner so that it could not affect India’s National interest.

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Election 2022 Election News

Congress Free India: How Far From Reality

Congress Free India How Far From Reality

The ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges in our lives. The effects of demonetization, mismanagement of covid-19 in many parts of India, Job crisis and the low number of sitting in the parliament where vital issues are being discussed and debated and above all the role of opposition parties in raising the voice of voiceless people are the major cause of concern. The recent developments in Indian Electoral Politics have changed the narratives and our perspectives too about the style of leadership, hereditary nature of Indian leadership, the role of coherent ideology, the manner in which decisions being made and implemented and political parties approach towards reaching the various social groups, etc.  As many political experts say that despite having declined in electoral politics since 2014, one cannot imagine the Indian politics without the Congress party and it still plays a pivot role.

This article has focused on the current state of Indian politics and the speedy decline of the Congress party from National politics particularly after 2014 and the possible ways forward.

 Glimpses of INC performance in the general election from 2004 to 2019  

From 2004 to 2014 the congress party with help of other regional parties was able to form a govt. by defeating the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP.

However, there are many theories, as propagated by political experts, around the decline of the Congress party. Many political pundits have argued that it has created a space for political entrepreneurs that led to various corruption scams such as the earlier Bofors scam, 2G scam, Sahara Scam, and poor governance system while others believed that lack of charismatic leadership, connectivity with masses, and social engineering of caste groups, etc. Many political observers even including ex-congress leaders (now in BJP) have mentioned that their personal growth has stagnated and decision-making process has been hijacked by a few veteran leaders that led to suffocation. For instance, referring to Rahul Gandhi, “Our once and future king” tweeted by a senior leader of the Congress party on the death anniversary of Rajiv Gandhi. What does it show? Do we believe in democracy or chamchagiri?  While on other hand pursuing president Pranab Mukherjee and giving a warm and emotional farewells to senior leader Gulan Nabi Azad was another political gesture of BJP.

Politicians Who Thought to Left the INC

  1. Milind Deora who thought to left the INC as INC didn’t like his idea on Article 370. Since he supported the BJP’s strong decision on the suspension of Article 370 but congress party simply opposed his ideological stand.
  2. Sachin Pilot was another politician who was quite in news for going against the INC. The simple reason going against the party in Rajasthan was all hard work and Party campaigning was done by him but CM candidature offered to Ashok Gahlot.

All is not well in the Congress Party

Here is the list of prominent leaders who were earlier in the congress party but now have left and joined BJP as if   

  1. Jitin Prasad
  2. Jyotiraditya Scindia
  3. Chaudhary Birender Singh
  4. Rita Bahuguna Joshi
  5. Tom Vedakkan and the list goes on.

Many political scientists believe that lack of consistency in policy decisions and policy actions, no coherent ideological commitment, growing Left-Congress synergy, and of course lack of personal growth of leaders, etc. are the possible reasons. For instance, Left-Congress Synergy has been unproductive as well as confusing for common party workers. In West Bengal they (Congress and Left together) fought election against Mamta Banerjee but what about in Kerala where Congress and Left parties were contested against each other.

Way forward

In the 2019 general election Rahul Gandhi was defeated by Smriti Irani in the Amethi Lok Sabha seat but manage to get elected from Wayanad (Kerala). In August 2020, G-23 i.e. 23 senior leaders of the Congress party have expressed their concerns to interim party Chief Sonia Gandhi. They have expressed their views on the poor performance of the Congress party in two consecutive general elections, bringing all structural reforms, self-introspection, and strategizing for upcoming elections. Even the post of Congress party president is still waiting for a full-time president. It was a clear political gesture to the congress party to rethink or purnavichar, restructure its party composition and bring fresh and young people to the party. But as being acknowledged by BJP-RSS senior leaders that still the congress party is the biggest challenger to the BJP party despite having a continuous decline. It is because it has managed to secure approx. 20% of total votes in two general elections i.e. 2014 and 2019 while the rest of the parties (excluding BJP) were not able to cross double-digit. It means at the bottom side it has maintained the status quo. Any increase in this percentage will surely affect the BJP vote share and would have led to a coalition government as well. Gandhi’s Family is still key to the Congress party that’s why Modi-Shah led BJP party keeps on attacking Gandhi Family. The Congress party needs to focus on

  1. To understand the changing nature of young voters, their aspirations and demography dividend and do all needful accordingly
  2. Innovative political Strategies and to communicate the masses at a large scale by judicious utilization of ICT platform.
  3. To provide some paces to local/regional parties and help them to form stable government where the Congress party is not in majority. Do not become power-hungry but adaptive according to the prevailing political scenario.
  4. Of course restructure its political organization or even vacating various seats as well otherwise many more leaders are waiting to join the BJP.
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Political research

BJP in UK: Downfall or Strategy Against Mamata Banerjee?

Is it the downfall of the BJP in the U.K or strategy against Mamta Banerjee

The tenure of Uttarakhand’s CM has been in turmoil since the day state was formed. We have witnessed that hardly any CM has completed his full tenure without being faced either internal rivalry or anti-incumbency. Uneven developments in the state, hill vs plain divide, caste equation and above all leader’s personal relation with central high command (Delhi), etc. being considered for political instability.  As many political pundits observed that the exit of two BJP chief Ministers i.e. Trivendra Singh Rawat and Tirath Singh Rawat was not just a constitutional crisis.  Let’s go into the deeper analysis of political developments that have increased political instability in the state.

Trivendra Singh Rawat (18th March 2017 to 10th March 2021):

He remained in the office for 3 years and 357 days. Many political observers have cited various reasons for the resignation of Trivdendra Singh Rawat such as
(a) his due to distance relationship with BJP central leadership i.e. Modi-Shah,
(b) Putting restriction in the organization of Kumbh Mela,
(c) Over-dependence on Bureaucracy,
(d) Internal rivalry within BJP and lack of expansion of the cabinet, etc.

In order to unite all factions, BJP high command appointed Madan Kaushik as Uttarakhand Chief and asked him to assess the ground reality. Meanwhile ignoring the fact that Tirath Singh Rawat was not a leader of masses being elevated to the post of CM due to his close relationship with Bhagat Singh Koshyari, a committed RSS pracharak and current governor of the state of Maharashtra. While neglecting Anil Baluni and Dhan Singh Rawat, both are close to RSS and enjoy goodwill in central leadership as well.

Tirath Singh Rawat (10th March 2021 to 4th July 2021):

After becoming the CM, Tirath Singh Rawat reversed many vital decisions of his predecessor Mr. Trivendra Singh Rawat such as
(a) Organizing Kumbh Mela in the midst of covid-19 and putting people’s lives in danger,
(b) Commitment to disband Char Dham Devasthanam Board
(c) Putting on hold of creation of commissioner ate at Gairsain
(d) Questioning women/girls who were wearing ripped jeans, etc.

Below we have highlighted two issues that triggered the politics of Uttarakhand as if

Kumbh Mela the super spreader of Covid-19 second waves:

Kumbh Mela means a lot to Sanatanies and to Hindus and so as the responsibility. The responsibility bearer should make clear and strict decisions and address the guidelines to the public of the State and the people who will visit the Mela from other States. Rather than this, he (Mr. Tirath Singh Rawat) took the decision to remove the requirement of the Covid test. He further said, “Kumbh happens only after 12 years. Therefore, we do not want people to miss on the opportunities of experiencing the festivals”. So, this left him surrounded by controversies, and courting the controversies over the fake RT-PCR test during the Kumbh Mela and mismanagement of the issue had also affected his goodwill.

Opening of tourism Sector:

To boost the tourism sector, the hotelier requested the former CM to remove the restriction of RT-PCR in tourists and allow hotels to operate 50%-75% occupancy. Just to boost the tourism sector during Covid-19, when the corona was at its peak, it obviously questions the government whether they were putting the entire state at stake just to boost the tourism sector.

Is BJP indirectly trying to target the Mamta Banerjee?

On the 3rd of July, 2021 in front of the Union Minister Mr. Narendra Singh Tomar and other BJP leaders a new CM will be assigned to the State, since Mr. Tirath Singh Rawat filed the resignation within 4 months of minister ship of the State. For this reason he could not handle the situation of the state, which lead the state to instability. “Target is not Tirath Singh Rawat but Mamata Banerjee. Tirath Singh was the sacrificed goat who had been sacrificed to ensure that Mamta did not get elected. The way she has challenged the prime minister. We all know the PM does not accept any challenges. We have seen what happened to L K Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi” said Congress MLA and deputy leader of the opposition Karana Mahra in an interview.

Let’s have a look at legal provisions:

As per article 164 (4) of the Constitution, “a Minister who for any period of six consecutive months is not a member of the Legislature of the State shall at the expiration of that period cease to be a Minister. Further, Section 151 (A) of Representation of People Act 1951 says that by-elections to be held for Parliament or State Legislature for a vacant seats within 6 months. If we read Section 151 (A) with Article 164 (4) then it lays down two conditions:
(I) if the period of the vacant seat is less than a year then there is no need to conduct by-election
(II) if the Election Commission of India in the consultation with Central Government certifies that it is difficult to held by-election within the stipulated time period.

Therefore the central authority of the BJP has not willing to support of by-election in the state of Uttarakhand that resulted in resignation of Tirath Singh Rawat. Many political pundits said that it might affect Mamata Banerjee’s CM candidature as well.

In case of Unicameral Legislature:

Unlike Maharashtra both Uttarakhand, as well as West Bengal, have a unicameral legislature means one house i.e.  State legislative assembly. In the bicameral legislature, as it happened in the state of Maharashtra, where after having lots of political tension between the Governor, Shiv Sena, and BJP, Mr. Uddhav Thakarey was nominated from the state legislative council. But in the case of West Bengal, the situation is different and that’s why all political pundits keep a bird’s eye view on 5th November.

Supreme Court in SR Chaudhary vs State of Punjab in 2001 clearly ruled out that a person cannot become a minister or a chief minister again after the expiry of 6 months if he is not elected. Upon asking about the recent constitutional crisis in the state of West Bengal and Uttarakhand and to disallow a by-election, the former president of Supreme Court Bar Association Dudhyant Dave said, “I don’t think this argument will hold water before the law court. Elections were held in Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry at the height of the pandemic. How can they stop this now? The court will not permit it”. Lastly, much depend on the newly appointed chief election commissioner that how he would assess the ground situation, and whether he allows to conduct the election or not.

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