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Master Lok Sabha Elections with Social Media Management

 

In today’s digital age, political parties rely heavily on social media to reach out to potential voters and gain an advantage over their opponents in the Lok Sabha elections. With the power of social media, parties can efficiently mobilize a vast electorate, both online and in person, to ensure victory. This was demonstrated during India’s 2019 Lok Sabha elections, as social media had a substantial impact on the outcome.

Leveraging the Power of Social Media for Lok Sabha Elections

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a pioneer in the strategic use of social media and television for political communication. As early as 2004, the party recognized social media’s potential and began using it to engage with people. However, it wasn’t until the 2014 national elections that the BJP finally perfected the technique of social media management, leveraging it to their advantage and securing an overwhelming majority.

The BJP’s social media campaign was successful due to its early adoption of internet communication technologies (ICTs) and ability to effectively use messaging apps like WhatsApp and social networking sites like Facebook. The party identified roughly 160 constituencies that were ideal for digital campaigning, which contributed significantly to their success in these areas.

Following the BJP’s success, other political parties have jumped on the digital bandwagon and devised social media management strategies for the next Lok Sabha and state elections.

The Shift in Political Campaigning and Media Coverage

Political campaign communication is an important element of political communication research in India, with issues ranging from vote share to voter turnout, demography, economy, health, corruption, and more. However, with the 2014 elections, the emphasis switched to social media as an important campaign strategy.

Traditionally, official party events such as rallies, speeches, and canvassing have been central to campaign communication. Still, in recent years, a leader’s statement on social media has been regarded a formal form of communication.

The Changing Dynamics of Campaign Planning

Campaign plans are not etched in stone and are constantly updated to reflect political shifts and current circumstances. With the BJP setting the standard for using technology in electoral campaigns, other parties have begun to invest in specialized social media divisions and engage skilled social media strategists to improve their prospects of success.

However, it is important to emphasize that social media alone cannot win elections in India. It must be combined with a comprehensive campaign strategy that considers local characteristics as well as each constituency’s specific demands. The increase in internet usage suggests that social media management will remain an important feature of Lok Sabha elections, making it critical for parties to adapt and use these platforms efficiently.

Looking Ahead

With the increased use of social media in political campaigns, it is crucial to cultivate critical thinking skills and an inquiry mindset among citizens. This will allow voters to question and examine the information supplied to them, allowing them to make more educated judgments during the election.

In conclusion, social media has become an essential component of Lok Sabha election preparation, and it is up to political parties to successfully use this potent medium to reach the population and ensure victory in the upcoming elections.

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What to Expect in the Madhya Pradesh 2024 Lok Sabha Elections?

Madhya Pradesh 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

As the political landscape of Madhya Pradesh gears up for the upcoming Lok Sabha Elections in 2024, political enthusiasts and citizens alike are eagerly anticipating the unfolding drama of democracy in this central Indian state. With the recent taking over of the ruling party in the Legislative Assembly Elections, the cards are in the favor of the BJP again. However, this is India, and the results can be astonishing, especially when it comes to Lok Sabha elections.

In this blog, we delve into the key aspects that could shape the elections, with a keen focus on the opinions and expectations of the diverse population. Additionally, we will explore the relevance of opinion poll surveys in understanding the pulse of the electorate in Madhya Pradesh.  

Looking Ahead to 2024

In the run-up to the elections, parties will likely intensify their outreach efforts, utilizing social media, traditional media, and grassroots campaigns to connect with voters. Understanding the evolving political landscape will be crucial for predicting the potential winners and assessing the impact of strategic alliances and coalitions.

Demographic Dynamics

Madhya Pradesh is a state known for its diverse demographics, with a mix of urban and rural populations. Understanding the nuanced needs and aspirations of both segments will be crucial for political parties vying for success in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. The youth, farmers, and women will likely play pivotal roles, and parties will need to craft policies that resonate with these demographics. Exploring the socio-economic landscape and historical voting patterns will be essential in predicting the potential outcomes.

As elections in the five state Assemblies concluded, political developments in Madhya Pradesh made the elections very special. For, as far as the people are concerned, inflation and unemployment are still bigger issues than the Ram Temple.

The BJP is not focused on campaigning on the ‘achievements’ made by its government in the state. Whether it is Bhopal, the capital city, or other cities like Indore, Ujjain, and Raisin- the BJP is using Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s face to lure votes in its favor, everywhere. PM Modi during one of his rallies even gave a slogan- ‘MP ke dil mein hai Modi, aur Modi ki guarantee’. One can see the entire area around Bhopal full of such banners and posters that depict Modi as a key challenge to the Congress and other contenders. In this scenario, whatever the outcome of these elections, the fact is that at present the electoral politics of the state is dominated by PM Modi, and he will likely emerge victorious as well.

Working with the Best Political Consulting Company in India

Political consultancy firms play a pivotal role in shaping election campaigns and strategies. Leadtech, recognized as the best political consulting company in India, has a proven track record of providing strategic insights and guidance to political parties. Their expertise in data analytics, campaign management, and public relations has positioned them as leaders in the field. As political parties in Madhya Pradesh gear up for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, the role of political consultancy firms like Leadtech becomes even more critical in navigating the complex political terrain. 

Opinion Poll Survey in Madhya Pradesh Election

Opinion polls are invaluable tools for gauging public sentiment and predicting electoral outcomes. Conducting an in-depth analysis of recent opinion polls in Madhya Pradesh can offer valuable insights into the preferences and inclinations of the electorate. We’ll explore how these polls are conducted, their methodologies, and the reliability of their predictions. Additionally, we’ll also provide you with insights based on these surveys, shaping your campaigns to align with public sentiment.

Conclusion

The Madhya Pradesh 2024 Lok Sabha Elections are poised to be a crucial battleground for political parties aiming to secure victory. By examining demographics, reader interests, and the significance of opinion poll surveys, we can gain valuable insights into the factors that will shape the electoral landscape. As the countdown to the elections begins, the role of political consultancy firms like Leadtech in guiding parties through the intricate web of politics cannot be overstated. The journey towards the elections promises to be both intriguing and consequential, with each move and decision potentially altering the political trajectory of Madhya Pradesh.

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Role of Top Political Consulting Firms in Indian Election Campaigns

 Undoubtedly, behind-the-scenes activities by political management consultants and consultants in general play a significant role in the outcome of elections. Like producers are to movies, political consultants are to campaigns. Selecting the best political consulting company in India can have a significant impact on election strategy, campaign management, fundraising campaigns (because funds are the main resource for all campaign operations), lobbying, and all the supporting factors that come together to create a successful campaign.

A political management consulting company provides political candidates and parties with an extensive array of services, including digital marketing, voter research and analysis, communication and messaging, campaign management, and strategic planning. These companies, which have gained prominence mostly in the past 20 years, have worked closely with leading politicians to help them win elections and influence public opinion.

How to Look for the Best Political Consulting Company in India?

The best political consulting company in India provides guidance, support, and advice to candidates, legislators, and other political organizations. Political consultants offer a wide range of services, including campaign planning and execution, voter targeting, data analysis, fundraising, campaign finance management, public relations and media management, and strategic planning. 

The consultants also provide advice on legal issues, morality, and other important issues that political campaigns and organizations need to address.

Role of Consultants in Complete Election Campaign Management

Consultants can take many different shapes and are frequently utility players that step in to lend a hand when needed. However, the “needs” of a campaign are often predictable, so political consultants can offer specialized knowledge in complete election campaign management while remaining more generalists. 

In the same manner that you might visit a general practitioner for yearly examinations yet, strangely, seek the opinion of a cardiologist for that chest pain that seems to flare up every two years. Political advisors operate in a similar manner. While some are more suited for discussing wide-ranging, general political consulting issues, others can be asked to focus on particular issues that come up in political campaigns.

Here are a few specific areas that consultants assist with in their work. 

1. Fundraising

In terms of importance to the campaign, fundraising consultants would be ranked first among political consultants. Without money, nothing else functions. Although it is not a certainty, wealth has always been necessary for campaigns to succeed or simply to be able to operate. The best political management consulting company in India  can emphasise on fundraising and can provide advice on major gifts, organization at the grassroots level, fundraising, among other things.

2. Voter Focus

Politics professionals who target voters can help your election campaign navigate the current political landscape. Consider this specialist to be a study group advisor. This person is a scout for the advanced team and does data analysis to assess voter targeting tactics.

3. Public Relations

There is certainly overlap in some of these roles, just as with specialized doctors, but public relations consultants often work in tandem with voter engagement programs. While public relations manages large-scale events, voter engagement usually focuses on small-scale messaging tactics like political canvassing and grassroots fundraising. Public relations professionals handle marketing campaigns for politicians that aim to reach a wider public, as well as interviews, live events, and commercials.

4. Campaigning

By winning over committees, companies, and political action organizations to their cause, these consultants assist with the aforementioned tasks. Power brokers and matchmakers are lobbying consultants. They have to spread the word about your campaign, look for people who share your views, and persuade them to support your candidate. There are several ways to support a cause, ranging from directly donating money through fundraisers to sending out personnel to conduct fieldwork (turnout). Through the development of contacts between relevant parties, lobbying consultants can handle complete election campaign management.

Conclusion

As you can see, the best political management consulting companies in India are involved in a wide variety of activities. Consultants provide advice, guidance, and support to politicians, political campaigns, and other parties pursuing political objectives. Regardless of the kind of support they receive, consultants have a bigger influence on the result of a campaign than do the candidates. 

Even the simplest decisions made by political management consultants can have an impact on the outcome of a campaign. Every political campaign will occasionally use phone banking and make calls in an attempt to change the minds of voters. If volunteers are ill-equipped to use tools like predictive dialers or lack the requisite expertise, campaign efficacy will be limited and critical metrics, such as the vote target, won’t be met.

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Political Consultancy- The Art of Election Planning

India, one of the biggest democracies in the world, faces its test of democracy every year in the form of elections. The election season is the time when citizens, decide the future of the state in particular and the country as a whole. Elections resemble a delicate chess game, where a single moment of oversight can result in defeat. Politicians avoid the risk of any lapse, as even a minute can sway the outcome. The long exercise of elections includes various dynamics and there are different stakeholders that successfully execute this comprehensive exercise. One of the crucial dynamics, of the elections is a political consultancy and a key role played by political consultants. Political consultancy is the process, in which a leader is advised on various aspects which include, election and campaign management, strategizing the pathways, and gauging the pulse of the constituency in order to win the elections. Each above-mentioned aspect is systematically carried out through proper planning and tools. Data analysis, Public Relations strategy for the candidate, management of outreach, survey, policy guidance, opinion poll and constituency study of the electorate are some of the fundamentals of political consultancy. These all-skill sets are executed by political consultants.

Art of Election Planning

Individuals who are socially conscious, politically engaged, and possess in-depth political knowledge often find a comfortable niche in political consultancy. This allows them to showcase their expertise through avenues such as grassroots intelligence, data administration, social media management, digital communication, and technology integration. They demonstrate a proactive and strategic working style. Political consultancy serves as a neutral ground where people from diverse backgrounds converge, contributing their skills to various spheres. In recent times, we have observed a surge in young minds adopting distinctive techniques and methodical approaches within this career path. This manifests a unique blend of fresh perspectives, technological acumen and dynamic and forward-thinking.

To win an election, the need to go to the roots is important, helping the candidates, know the pulse of their constituency, the visit to each door, of each booth of the constituency, all this helps to make a detailed study about the constituency, understanding of the caste profile, voting behaviour, and the political wave in the constituency. The in-depth research and analysis build a foundation for the leaders to project themselves in the constituency, resonate with the political nerves of the masses, build a narrative around the issues pertaining to the constituency, and perception about his/her leadership that turns his/her popularity into votes.

This consultancy, to the leaders, helps them to understand their constituency, voters and dynamics of the area, which translates into his/her promises, policy formulations, and agenda setting for the constituency. The political consultant creates an impactful campaign, that spreads across the small gaps of the constituency in a uniform manner. Effective communication is one of the core exercises of the elections. Consultants in coordination with leaders craft a well-planned communication strategy, that will totally reflect a voter’s voice. Further, this creates a manifesto, that is voter centric. Here the in-depth and comprehensive survey, research and analysis make a constituency-driven manifesto, effective communication and management. 

In this tech world, even the space of politics is not left untouched, the blend of technology and political consultancy has given rise to new and unique perspectives and developments. For example, we at
Leadtech provide a top-class tech blended political consultancy to our client, which has helped us to be in this industry for more than a decade. Through tech support, there is ease and coverage of the constituencies and nuanced details of the voters and constituency at the fingertips. With the era of new technologies, politicians are leveraging these technologies to learn about people’s expectations, vision, needs, demands, and hopes. Through AI, Chatbots, and social media, all these technological interventions have made the field of political consultancy very much unique and advanced. The technological wrapping around the political consultancy makes it a more strong and structured space for Indian elections. 

Hence, political consultancy, an area, that is growing rapidly in India, is becoming a new space wherein, through consultancy the elections are more enhanced,  won on more concrete and genuine issues, narratives and promises rather than on old practices of money and muscle power play. By bringing new innovations, structures, systems and technology to the space of Indian elections, it also generates substantial employment based on individuals’ capabilities and interests. Bringing together the scattered pieces of the constituency through political consultancy is the approach that was much needed for the Indian political landscape. 

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Can an Individual Hold Parliament and Assembly Seats in India?

A person may run for office in a general election, more than one by-election, or biennial elections from a maximum of two seats under Section 33 of the RPA, 1951.

Candidates were allowed to run in as many constituencies as possible prior to this law. According to Section 70 of the Act, if a candidate wins both seats, they are required to leave one within ten days, calling for a by-election. 

As per the Constitution, a person is not allowed to hold more than one seat in a House or serve as a member of both the House of Commons and a state legislature at the same time. 

Procedures and timelines for effect:

I. Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha 

Article 101(1) of the Constitution, read with Section 68(1) of The Representation of the People Act, 1951 says:

If a person is elected simultaneously to both the Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha, and if he has not yet taken his seat in either House, he can choose, within 10 days from the later of the dates on which he is chosen, which Houses of which he would like to be a member.

The member must intimate his choice in writing to the Secretary to the ECI within the 10-day window, failing which his seat in Rajya Sabha will fall vacant at the end of this period [Sec 68(2), RPA 1951].

The choice, once intimated, is final. [Sec. 68(3), RPA, 1951]

No such option is, however, available to a person who is already a member of one House and has contested the election for membership of the other House.

So, if a sitting Rajya Sabha member contests and wins a Lok Sabha election, his seat in the Upper House becomes automatically vacant on the date he is declared elected to Lok Sabha. The same applies to a Lok Sabha member who contests an election to Rajya Sabha. [Sec 69 read with Sec 67A, RPA 1951]

II. Elected on two Lok Sabha seats

There is no one in this category in the new Lok Sabha. Under Sec. 33(7) of RPA, 1951, an individual can contest from two parliamentary constituencies.

But, if elected from both, he has to resign one seat within 14 days of the declaration of the result, failing which both his seats shall fall vacant. [Sec. 70, RPA, 1951, read with Rule 91 of the Conduct of Elections Rules, 1961]

III. State Assembly and Lok Sabha

Article 101(2) of the Constitution, along with Rule 2 of the Prohibition of Simultaneous Membership Rules, 1950, made by the President under this Article, says:

After being elected to the Lok Sabha, state legislators are required to step down from their positions within 14 days, “from the date of publication in the Gazette of India or in the Official Gazette of the State, whichever is later.” If this doesn’t happen, their Lok Sabha seats will immediately become vacant.

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15 Years of LEADTECH

Join our celebrations on the 15th Anniversary of LEADTECH, the best political consulting company in India! Over the years, we’ve helped over 2000 clients achieve their goals, from MPs to MLAs to Ministers. Our experts, with expertise and knowledge in various political backgrounds, have been building winning narratives since 2008.

Our cutting-edge tools and innovative strategies have helped our clients gain valuable insights and make informed decisions. Let’s look at our journey and the successes we’ve achieved together.

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Lok Sabha Absence Puts Rahul Gandhi Back in Spotlight

The heir to the Gandhi legacy, the present representative of the clan, the Congress PM face since before 2004, the unlucky Gandhi – Rahul Gandhi has been described in many ways. But since Modi’s ascent in 2014, there’s been largely one way to describe him, and that is ridicule. He has been ridiculed for his statements, his leadership, his vacations, his electoral failures, just to list a few. The media has been merciless, his support base has been waning, and his Opposition has been growing stronger. It was expected that after 18 years of vying for the Prime Ministerial seat, his spirit would break and he would retract. If not entirely from politics, then at least just from his party’s front. But Rahul did not do that. Rahul has come back into the limelight, and this time, his publicity isn’t all negative.

On 17 December 2022, Rahul Gandhi was trending on Twitter, with over 60,000 tweets mentioning him. What was that about? A statement he made about the Indian soldiers – more accurately, about the lack of preparement of the Indian Army in comparison to China’s, and questioning the facts of previous surgical strikes which took place under Modi’s rule. Unsurprisingly, it got reactions from the BJP’s elite media team, consisting of personalities like Amit Malviya, Anand Ranganathan, Shehzad Poonawala, amongst others. Ministers like Kiren Rijiju also contributed to this debate. Rahul was likened to Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and news anchors also came down heavily on him.

Yet, despite the whole kerfuffle, Rahul benefitted. This isn’t the first time he has gained media traction this year.

This is because in the year 2022, Congress finally seems to be on a path of revival. Earlier this year, they invited Prashant Kishor of IPAC to fix the party and potentially get involved for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Even though the meeting went awry, it was a good sign for the Grand Old Party, which despite struggling all these years, refused to seek external help. Rahul stopped vying for the Party President seat this year, after years of criticism of the Gandhi family, dynasty politics and nepotism. Mallikarjun Kharge took his place, relieving Rahul of another responsibility. Now Rahul could be free to pursue just one thing – and that was trying to remove BJP from the country. He started with his Bharat Jodo Yatra, but it was ignored by the media. So Rahul is simply trying to bring attention to it.

This is what happens when Rahul trends for his “controversial” statement. A Twitter user may scroll to find the first 3 posts about the statement, but the 4th post will inevitably be about a huge rally, with a salt-and-pepper bearded Rahul waving to them. Even if Rahul’s supporters seem to be reducing, there are over 10,000 tweets daily about the Bharat Jodo Yatra, which go unmissed since such a small number usually would not trend. But add in 50,000 tweets which go against Rahul, and the total tally goes up – and it captures Twitter’s attention. Suddenly Rahul is trending.

The polarized audience continue to stay polarized – prima facie, they still dislike Rahul, they still think he has no chance in any polls – but they are subliminally introduced to the flip side of the coin, which is that Rahul is leading a very successful pad yatra throughout the country. The media manipulation tactics, which were successfully used by BJP through the years – putting money in advertising and wooing mainstream anchors to vocalize their support of the party, are now being countered by Rahul and Congress. He is not only trending on Twitter – even news organizations are having to report on him. And that is better than being out of the limelight like he was for several years. He is finally behaving like an Opposition is supposed to behave.

Social media is a strong tool that the ruling party has mastered using, since the boom of the digital age in India. Other parties still struggle with it, and go for either generic media agencies with low political understanding and/or use internal teams with low media knowledge. Leadtech has a dedicated wing to Digital Management, with a primary focus on social media. Contact us today to find out how we can help capture your audiences.

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    How BJP Fared this Election Season – And What It Says About the Future

    BJP Fared this Election Season

    December of 2022 was a tough one for the national ruling party BJP. The right-wing Hindu party has been in power at the Centre since 2014, and since then has mostly seen unbounded success. From domestic success like organically flipping traditional Congress states, to international success like improved national image, BJP managed to make its mark.

    Politically speaking, BJP has impressed even naysayers by winning where their win was unimaginable. For instance, the way they emerged as the single largest opposition in the state of West Bengal (a traditionally communist-electing state) in the 2021 Assembly elections, came as a shock to political analysts and the public at large. However, not every election season is favorable for them, as was exhibited in the recent string of elections.

    Between 7 and 8 December, results for 3 types of elections were announced – Assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, Corporation elections in Delhi, and a few by-elections in Uttar Pradesh and other states, both for Lok Sabha and their Assembly. BJP’s scorecard this election season was a little worrying.

    Gujarat is a BJP bastion – the state groomed the present Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and has won in the state consecutively since 1998. In the last election held in 2017, they saw a dip in seat share, although they managed to woo some Opposition MLAs back and maintained their dominance. Earlier this year, they decimated their main opposition Congress by poaching one of their main leaders, Hardik Patel. It was no surprise that they won 156 of the 182 seats in the 2022 Gujarat Assembly Elections. Leadtech, a pioneer in Election Management, collected primary data from the ground and was able to predict this win earlier this year.

    But in all the others, BJP lost out a lot.

    Their loss in the MCD (Municipal Corporation of Delhi) elections, which were postponed several times, ended their 15-year streak. Between 2007 and 2022, they had managed to win the corporation, regardless of whether Congress or AAP had formed the government at the State level, but this time, in a neck-to-neck competition with AAP, they faced a bitter defeat. It wasn’t a lack of effort – BJP’s campaign for MCD was aggressive and unmatched. State President Adesh Gupta managed to get BJP a 39% vote share – a 3% increase from last term, but it still fell short of AAP. They won only 104 seats, to AAP’s 134. This is another result Leadtech had predicted earlier this year.

    Himachal Pradesh, which, like Rajasthan, gave the mandate alternatively to Congress’s Virbhadra Singh and BJP’s Prem Kumar Dhumal for several decades, chose a BJP government in 2017. The CM face changed, however, since Dhumal did not win, and they managed a decent run of 5 years. But the government was toppled this year when Congress, despite the lack of stalwart Virbhadra Singh (due to his passing), won 40 of the 68 seats. AAP won no seats, however, and BJP was reduced to a minority

    The by-elections were also disappointing for BJP. Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Mainpuri seat was won by his daughter-in-law, Dimple Yadav, standing as proof that Samajwadi Party is still a force to be reckoned with, at least in Uttar Pradesh. In assembly by-elections, only 2 of the 6 seats were won by BJP.

    These results are worrying for BJP, which plans to expand into every state, every territory. States like Himachal Pradesh and Corporations like the MCD, in which they had a good control and history, were lost out to parties that BJP doesn’t consider to be serious opponents. Winning Gujarat alone is not enough – that is just testimony to their old roots – losing previously won territories is what is crucial. BJP needs to pull up their socks and move beyond media control -they need to work harder on ground and engage in membership drives. Other parties like INC and AAP, which are doing well, need to engage in mass door to door campaigns. Leadtech has an expertise in all such services.

    The future isn’t as simple and predictable anymore – Congress is not dead yet, and BJP isn’t the only option.

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      Mainpuri By-Election – SP Might Lose Yet Another Lok Sabha Seat

      Mainpuri Election

      The whole of Mainpuri is bustling with the cries of SP’s recent campaign slogan, “UP ki Chaabi, Dimple Bhabhi.” After the unexpected passing of SP founder and patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, this by-election is a crucial one for Samajwadi Party. They won only 5 seats in the 2019 general elections due to their Mahagathbandhan Alliance, of which they had already lost 2 seats (Azamgarh and Rampur), which went to BJP in the by-polls. Mulayam’s stronghold, Mainpuri Lok Sabha, is now the third seat lost by SP. The question now is – can SP at least retain this seat, or will it go to the BJP again?

      Mulayam Singh Yadav has won this seat 5 times, but non-consecutively (except 2009-14). Samajwadi Party has won this seat consecutively since 1996. This seat has always been a stronghold of SP. However, in the past few years, the vote share of SP has gone down. From 2014, when his grandson Tej Pratap Singh won with over 32% margin over BJP’s Prem Singh Shakya, the margin in 2019 was barely 9% – even though Mulayam himself contested. Even the 5 Assembly segments under Mainpuri Lok Sabha were threatened. In 2022, two of the five seats were won by BJP (Bhongaon and Mainpuri), when in the past, all 5 used to be won by SP. Both Yogi Adityanath and Modi factors have reduced the influence of SP in Mainpuri. This was also exacerbated by the internal conflicts of the Yadav clan – differences between Shivpal and nephew Akhilesh.

      Caste wise, it is clear why Mainpuri was a Samajwadi Party bastion. Almost 4.25 lakh voters belong to the Yadav community, which forms approximately 20% of the votebase. The Shakya community consists of 3.25 lakh voters. Both these strong OBC groups used to vote for SP. The constituency is actually Mulayam Singh Yadav (popularly known as ‘Netaji’)’s home constituency. It was the first Lok Sabha seat in which he contested and won, way back in 1996.

      In this by-election, which took place on 5 December 2022, both major parties projected new faces.

      SP decided to nominate Dimple Yadav, the daughter-in-law of Netaji, and the wife of former CM Akhilesh Yadav. Her candidature even led to the union of the Yadav family, with PSP(L) head Shivpal Singh Yadav campaigning in favor of Dimple. Her electoral history is tainted – she won in 2012 only when her husband vacated the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat to become the CM, and in 2014, when the opposition withdrew the nominations. Whenever she has been in a real competition, like in 2009 against Raj Babbar (INC) or in 2019 against Subrat Pathak (BJP), she has lost. However, again, this time, she has the advantage of her father-in-law’s illustrious career and on-ground popularity.

      BJP decided to project Raghuraj Singh Shakya, who very recently quit PSP(L). He has served as an SP MLA from Etawah Assembly from 2012-17, and as an MP from Etawah Lok Sabha, from 1999 to 2009. After that, the seat became reserved for SCs, and hence Shakya could not contest. His decision to join BJP may have been fueled by the internal differences within SP and PSP(L), and his admiration of PM Narendra Modi.

      Leadtech’s top analysts have been involved in UP elections since 2008. With a tremendous amount of caste data collected by our surveyors over the years and through the elections, Leadtech has a high accuracy in result prediction.

      BJP, in this case, has higher chances of winning Mainpuri, mainly due to the caste consolidation. They will receive support from communities like Shakyas (original SP loyalists), Thakurs, Brahmins, and Lodhi. The Dalit vote will be split, and a small percentage of Yadav vote will go to BJP too. BJP has already shown that it plans to capture every by-poll and take back seats that they could not win in 2019. Their on-ground campaigning, combined with Modi’s national appeal, has resulted in a lot of success for BJP in even traditional SP seats. Dimple’s only benefit this election is the sympathy vote, which she will garner due to her father-in-law’s passing. Besides this, the caste factor will not work in SP’s favor this election.

      The results for the by-poll are expected to come on 8 December 2022. If SP manages to retain it, their representation in Lok Sabha will increase to 3 – or else, it will be a humiliation for them and raise questions about their future in Uttar Pradesh. Another consequence will be that if she loses, there will be no member of the Yadav clan in either Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha – which will be a first for the family since 1996.

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        Bharat Jodo Yatra Enters Rajasthan: Can Congress Hold Power?

        BHARAT JODO YATRA

        There are only two states in the country where Congress is ruling independently, without the support of a coalition partner – Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Although Chhattisgarh, after 15 years of BJP rule, gave the mandate to INC in the last election (2018), Rajasthan has a so-called tennis court arrangement. Since 1998, every term, the party in power changes, andthe other one takes control. Since 1998, only 2 people, Ashok Gehlot and Vasundhra Raje, have served as the Chief Minister, on and off. What’s more – it’s a well known fact among political circles that these two opposing forces are actually friends.

        While Congress suffered in multiple states since their loss in Lok Sabha beginning 2014, Rajasthan was one of the few states that they won in, and didn’t lose out to political crises like in MP and Karnataka. It certainly wasn’t due to Gehlot’s good governance – his present term has been full of controversies and scandals. Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s speech in September earlier this year highlighted some of the broken promises – the collapse of law and order, high VAT and power tariffs, unemployment, and many more.

        Some allege that Vasundhra Raje is the reason why Gehlot is still in power. It is no secret that Raje has been sidelined from Rajasthan politics almost altogether. She has served two full terms, with many successful schemes, but due to her differences with the BJP high command, Amit Shah in particular, she is no longer involved in the state. She holds no posts – Satish Poonia is the state party president and former state minister Gulab Chand Kataria is the Leader of Opposition despite having a former CM in the assembly. She has the ceremonial post of National Vice President, but no control in her home state. It is not far-fetched for the public to assume that after being denied opportunities, Raje would work against the party, or at least, not find motivation to help the party.

        Despite Raje’s present position, and her potential to prevent BJP forming government next year when Rajasthan goes to the polls, BJP is not in crisis-mode yet. There is no lack of influential leaders from the state. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, for instance, is a gold-medal candidate for the Chief Minister. Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, the MP from Jodhpur, also is favored by Modi-Shah, even though his influence is mainly restricted to Western Rajasthan. There are many underdogs who are also vying for the seat, but the decision “will be up to the party”, they
        all claim.

        Despite Raje’s present position, and her potential to prevent BJP forming government next year when Rajasthan goes to the polls, BJP is not in crisis-mode yet. There is no lack of influential leaders from the state. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, for instance, is a gold-medal candidate for the Chief Minister. Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, the MP from Jodhpur, also is favored by Modi-Shah, even though his influence is mainly restricted to Western Rajasthan. There are many underdogs who are also vying for the seat, but the decision “will be up to the party”, they all claim.

        On the first glance, one may assess Congress’s position in the state as strong, but the party has its own complications. For starters, the CM face for the party is still dubious. 3 term incumbent Ashok Gehlot seems like the more natural choice, but Sachin Pilot has been aiming for the seat for a long time. Even though Gehlot gave up the Congress presidential post to safeguard his position in the state, it would be interesting to see who Mallikarjun Kharge would pick for the face next year. If at all they decide to go with Pilot, a begrudged Gehlot might work Raje-style and help Congress lose. Besides leadership, Congress also has the problem of caste-based vote consolidation – a strategy BJP is a master of, but Congress lately seems to have lost an understanding of. Ultimately, it will depend upon the on-ground work both parties undertake.

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